This study aims to investigate the determinants of pandemic and epidemic preparedness in the least developed African countries by applying a multidimensional framework that incorporates governance, health infrastructure, socioeconomic vulnerability and institutional capacity. It addresses the lack of integrated empirical analyses tailored to Africa’s complex socio-political and environmental context.
The study adopts a quantitative approach using cross-sectional data from 29 least developed African countries. The determinants are constructed across five dimensions: governance, institutional capacity, health infrastructure, socioeconomic conditions and social resilience. The robust weighted least squares method, using the Welsch loss function, is employed to address outlier sensitivity and provide stable parameter estimates for small sized samples.
Results show that higher immunization coverage and literacy significantly enhance pandemic preparedness, emphasizing the critical role of preventative health and education. Well-integrated social protection systems and effective governance are also strong positive contributors. In contrast, poorly supported community health workers, high poverty, informal employment and urban slums negatively affect preparedness. Environmental stressors such as air pollution and high population density further undermine resilience. Notably, nurses have a more positive impact on preparedness than physicians, highlighting the importance of strategic health workforce deployment over sheer numbers.
This study is the first to empirically assess pandemic preparedness in the least developed African countries using an integrated, multidimensional framework and robust estimation techniques. It fills a significant research gap by localizing global theoretical models to the African context.
