FORECASTING TRENDS IN RETAILING — OR HOW TO DO SUMS ON THE BACK OF AN ENVELOPE

Thirteen years ago James Jefferys and his colleague Derek Knee published their book Retailing in Europe, which forecast trends between 1955 and 1970 in retail employment, the number of establishments and retail sales in absolute terms and per person. The estimates, most of which were completed in 1960, related to eighteen European countries as well as Western Europe as an entity. Now, fifteen years later, James Jefferys compares their forecasts (some of them made with the help of the back of an old envelope) with the reality of the current situation.