This study aims to investigate the structural transformation in India’s sectoral export diversification to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, focusing on agriculture, manufacturing and industrial sectors descriptively and through a concentration index in the econometric framework. It aims to identify key determinants influencing India–GCC exports and evaluate their impact on India’s export trajectory.
The analysis uses the fractional logit model to assess the impact of selected variables on India’s export concentration. Export data are classified using the Harmonized System (HS) code 2-digit commodity classification and the Herfindahl–Hirschman concentration index measures sectoral concentration across the three sectors.
India’s exports to GCC countries are highly concentrated in specific commodities across agriculture, manufacturing and industry as measured by the Herfindahl–Hirschman index. The gross domestic product (GDP) and per capita GDP of GCC countries positively influence export concentration, indicating that economic growth in partner countries strengthens India’s focus on certain commodities. Increases in trade openness lead to export concentration. The exchange rate between the Indian rupee and partner currencies shows no significant effect on export concentration.
This study provides new insights into India’s export dynamics with GCC countries by analyzing sectoral concentration through a fractional logit model. It highlights the role of economic and trade factors in shaping export patterns, offering valuable implications for policymakers aiming to enhance India’s export diversification and economic resilience.
