China’s dominant role in global value chains means that disruptions to its production schedule have widespread effects. This study aims to examine the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday as a recurring and predictable shock to African trade, reframing it not as a seasonal adjustment but as a meaningful macroeconomic event. It aims to quantify the effects of CNY-related production pauses in China on African trade performance across regions and economic groupings.
Using a high-frequency panel data set of 26 African economies from 2020 to 2025, the study uses fixed-effects models, rolling-window regressions and event-study analysis to estimate the causal impact of the CNY holiday on monthly trade flows, including total trade, imports and exports. It further explores heterogeneous effects across income levels, resource intensity, geography and political stability.
The results reveal significant contractions in trade during CNY months, particularly in South, Central and North Africa. Low-income, coastal, non-resource-intensive and politically stable economies experience the strongest disruptions, while resource-intensive, landlocked and fragile states show smaller or insignificant effects. Rolling-window estimates indicate that the shocks peaked in 2022 – during the post-COVID recovery – before moderating in later years.
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper provides one of the first empirical assessments of the CNY holiday as a macroeconomic shock to African economies. By quantifying the trade implications of a culturally rooted, calendar-based production pause, it extends the literature on seasonal trade shocks and global value-chain vulnerabilities, offering actionable insights for trade policy, forecasting and supply-chain resilience planning.
