Flood risk modelling: a crisis of confidence?

The flood events of October 2000 brought significant damage and disruption to wide swathes of the UK. Lessons learnt included the need to improve on the rather simplistic approaches to assessing flood risk that are commonly in use. Both the operating authorities and the insurance industry have sharpened their resolve to improve on flood risk assessment in order to ensure that limited resources are focused on the most effective means of mitigation. This paper describes the research work of the UK Environment Agency's primary consultancy on flood risk. It demonstrates the range of sophisticated tools currently available—from broad-scale appraisals of assets at risk to site-specific flood propagation models—and calls for civil engineers to put more confidence in their application.