Shackle's Theory of Decision Making under Uncertainty: Synopsis and Brief Appraisal

In recent years Professor Shackle's numerous, highly imaginative and original works on the role of expectation and uncertainty in the modelling of economic behaviour have at last become more widely acknowledged. However, still relatively little attention is paid to one of his seminal and earliest studies, that concerned with his own theory of expectations and individual decision making under uncertainty, work on which was begun and published in the 1930s and completed in 1949 with the appearance of the first edition of Expectation in Economics. Thereafter, until the early 1960s, his theory received a modest amount of interest. However, it tended to become neglected; reference rarely appears to it in books or papers on expectation, even in those papers discussing decision making under uncertainty (see, as one of the latest examples, G. O. Schneller and G. P. Sphicas, 1983). The literature has been dominated by the risk‐based, expected utility approach to decision taking.