The Employment Effects of Changes in the Structure of UK Trade

This article uses a 22‐industry breakdown of the UK manufacturing sector to examine the effects on employment of various changes in the structure, but not the overall level, of exports, imports, and trade balances within an input‐output framework. The analyses reported relate to greater specialisation in trade, faster structural adjustment and import substitution. The results show both the industrial pattern and overall net effect of employment changes and the distinction is made between the direct employment consequences of changes in the trade balances of the industries concerned and induced employment changes via derived demands for intermediate inputs.