National statistical systems are critical economic infrastructure, yet their quality varies dramatically across countries. This article estimates the economic value of statistical capacity and evaluates whether blockchain investment in national statistical systems is economically justified.
Using panel data from 166 countries (2016–2023), we estimate associations between the World Bank's Statistical Performance Indicators (SPI) and three theoretical channels: capital accumulation, trade and policy effectiveness, using two-way fixed effects. We then develop a cost-benefit framework for blockchain investment, parameterized by these estimates and benchmarked against documented implementations.
Estimates show a robust positive association for capital accumulation, concentrated in upper-middle-income countries, but no significant association for the other two channels, a pattern consistent with institutional complementarity theory. Under stated assumptions, blockchain adoption is economically justified primarily for upper-middle-income countries with below-median SPI; the ranking is robust to halving the coefficient.
The article provides cross-country evidence linking statistical capacity to macroeconomic outcomes and the first integrated cost-benefit framework for blockchain investment in national statistical systems. The cost-benefit results are scenario-based policy evaluations, not evidence of blockchain effectiveness.
