The purpose of this paper is to test the asymptotic properties and prediction accuracy of two innovative methods proposed along the hedonic debate: the geographically weighted regression (GWR) and the generalized additive model (GAM).
The authors assess the asymptotic properties of linear, spatial and non-linear hedonic models based on a very large data set in Germany. The employed functional form is based on the OLS, GWR and the GAM, while the estimation methodology was chosen to be iterative in forecasting, the fitted rents for each quarter based on their 1-quarter-prior functional form. The performance accuracy is measured by traditional indicators such as the error variance and the mean squared (percentage) error.
The results provide evidence for a clear disadvantage of the GWR model in out-of-sample forecasts. There exists a strong out-of-sample discrepancy between the GWR and the GAM models, whereas the simplicity of the OLS approach is not substantially outperformed by the GAM approach.
For policymakers, a more accurate knowledge on market dynamics via hedonic models leads to a more precise market control and to a better understanding of the local factors affecting current and future rents. For institutional researchers, instead, the findings are essential and might be used as a guide when valuing residential portfolios and forecasting cashflows. Even though this study analyses residential real estate, the results should be of interest to all forms of real estate investments.
Sample size is essential when deriving the asymptotic properties of hedonic models. Whit this study covering more than 570,000 observations, this study constitutes – to the authors’ knowledge – one of the largest data sets used for spatial real estate analysis.
