Editorial: Theoretical development of tourism futures

Research without theory would be largely descriptive and lack direction, making it difficult to understand the significance of findings (Parsons, 1938). While researchers could still collect observations and data, they would have little guidance on what questions to ask, which factors to investigate or how different variables might be related. Theory provides a framework for explaining patterns, interpreting results and predicting outcomes; without it, research would mainly focus on describing what happens rather than explaining why it happens. In addition, the absence of theory would make it harder to connect individual studies and build cumulative knowledge, as findings would remain isolated rather than contributing to a broader understanding of a phenomenon. Therefore, although research can begin with observation, theory is essential for giving meaning, structure and purpose to the research process.

Theory plays a fundamental role in applied sciences research in tourism because it provides the conceptual foundation for understanding, analysing and addressing real-world tourism issues. It helps researchers explain tourist behaviour, destination competitiveness, service quality, sustainability and the social, economic and environmental impacts of tourism (Pearce and Butler, 2010; Pearce, 2012; Smith and Lee, 2010). By using established theories, researchers can identify relationships between variables, develop hypotheses and design studies that generate reliable and meaningful findings (Bricker and Donohoe, 2015; Pavelka, 2013). In practice, tourism theories guide decision-making for destination managers, policymakers and tourism businesses by providing evidence-based insights that can improve visitor experiences, strengthen destination marketing and support sustainable development. Therefore, theory is essential in applied tourism research as it bridges the gap between academic knowledge and practical solutions, enabling the tourism industry to respond effectively to contemporary challenges and opportunities (Doak and Mills, 1994).

Theoretical research is sometimes criticized because it is often seen as less practical and less immediately useful than applied research. Critics may argue that theoretical research focuses too much on abstract ideas, concepts and models (Speakman, 2016; Van de Berg and Paige, 2009) rather than solving real-world problems faced by the tourism industry (Pearce, 2012). As a result, some practitioners and policymakers may view it as disconnected from the everyday challenges of managing destinations, attracting visitors or improving tourism services. However, this criticism overlooks the fact that theoretical research provides the foundation on which applied research is built.

A major criticism of futures research is its lack of strong theoretical underpinning. Much of the field has traditionally been dominated by methods such as scenario planning, Delphi surveys, trend analysis, forecasting and horizon scanning, which are highly useful for exploring possible futures but often do not explain the underlying mechanisms that create or shape those futures (Postma et al., 2025). As a result, futures research has frequently been described as method-driven rather than theory-driven. While these methods can generate plausible and insightful scenarios, they often produce descriptive accounts of potential futures without providing a coherent framework for understanding why certain futures emerge, persist or decline. The absence of a strong theoretical foundation has several consequences. First, it limits the academic legitimacy of futures studies because findings from different studies can be difficult to compare, integrate or build upon. Second, without theory, futures research may struggle to explain causal relationships, focusing more on what might happen rather than why it might happen. Third, the lack of shared theoretical constructs can result in fragmented knowledge, where individual studies remain isolated and contribute little to cumulative scientific understanding.

In tourism, this is particularly problematic because the industry operates in a highly uncertain environment shaped by technological change, climate change, geopolitical risks, consumer trends and global crises. It is also held back by the nature of the industry, with its small and medium enterprise (SME) structure, perceptions of the value and role of tourism academia in industry and the focus on short-termism (Yeoman and McMahon-Beattie, 2026). However, the need for stronger theory development in tourism futures research has been increasingly recognised by scholars (Yeoman and McMahon-Beattie, 2025). A theoretical foundation provides clearly defined concepts, explains relationships between variables and offers propositions that can be tested and refined through empirical research. Theory helps move futures studies beyond speculation by providing explanations of how tourism futures develop and the conditions under which different scenarios become more or less likely (Postma et al., 2025). It also strengthens the connection between academic research and practical decision-making by offering a framework that policymakers, destination managers and tourism organisations can use to understand and shape future outcomes. Therefore, the challenge for futures research is not simply to create better methods but to develop robust theories that explain the dynamics of change. A stronger theoretical underpinning would enable futures research to evolve from a collection of forecasting techniques into a mature academic field capable of generating cumulative knowledge, explaining complex tourism. phenomena, and supporting more effective strategic planning and policy development.

One of the champions of tourism futures has been Professor Stephan Bingemer of Hochschule Heilbronn, who, in this issue of the Journal of Tourism Futures, makes an important contribution to the theoretical development of tourism futures because it addresses a long-standing weakness in the field: the absence of a coherent theory to explain how tourism futures emerge, evolve and decline (Bingemer, 2026). Rather than relying solely on methods such as scenario planning, forecasting and horizon scanning, the paper introduces the Tourism Futures Dynamics Theory (TFDT), which integrates five foundational constructs time, space, agency, uncertainty and entropy into a unified framework. The theory moves tourism futures research beyond descriptive and method-driven approaches by explaining the relationships between these constructs and offering propositions that can be empirically tested. Its most novel contribution is the introduction of entropy, which explains why tourism futures and scenarios naturally deteriorate unless sustained through continuous stakeholder effort, governance and resource investment. By providing clear concepts, relationships and explanatory mechanisms, TFDT establishes the first explicit theoretical foundation for tourism futures studies and creates a basis for cumulative knowledge building, empirical validation and more rigorous future research in tourism.

Whilst an Associate Professor of Tourism Futures at Victoria University of Wellington, I had the pleasure of meeting Andrus Nomm prior to him embarking on his doctoral studies at the University of Otago. Andrus has a wonderful mind, which is both critical and engaging, which are essential requirements for PhD studies. One of the outputs from his doctoral studies appears in this issue. The paper, Integrating scenario planning with futures wheels: a sequential framework for exploring tourism futures, contributes to tourism futures theory by demonstrating how scenario planning and futures wheels can be integrated into a sequential framework that enhances the exploration of complex tourism futures (Nomm et al., 2026). By linking plausible future scenarios with a systematic analysis of their wider implications, the study advances theoretical understanding of how future tourism systems evolve, interact and generate cascading consequences. The framework strengthens the methodological and conceptual foundations of tourism futures research by promoting a more holistic, participatory and systems-oriented approach to understanding and shaping future tourism development.

In this issue, Raza et al. (2026)’s paper contributes to tourism futures theory by introducing and validating a conceptual framework for understanding the emerging phenomenon of space dining tourism. Through the development of a multidimensional scale measuring tourists' perceptions of dining at the edge of space, the study identifies key future-oriented constructs related to physiological, technological, emotional and sensory experiences. In doing so, it advances theoretical understanding of how future tourism experiences may be shaped by the convergence of space travel, artificial intelligence, luxury hospitality and human perception, thereby extending tourism futures research into a new frontier of tourism development. The contribution of Christou’s (2025) paper is that it introduces AGI as a new conceptual lens through which to understand future tourism systems. It argues that tourism may enter a new phase in which autonomous agents, intelligent robots and highly advanced experiential technologies become active participants in the creation and delivery of tourism experiences. This shifts thinking about tourism futures from a focus on technological tools to a consideration of how intelligent technologies may become actors within tourism systems themselves.

Papp (2026) interviews Janette Roush (Senior Vice President of Innovation and Chief AI Officer at Brand USA) about the emergence of AI. The paper introduces trust, provenance, transparency and AI governance as emerging theoretical constructs that will shape future destination management and tourist decision-making. In doing so, it advances a more systemic and governance-oriented understanding of tourism futures in an era of artificial intelligence. Stolyarchuk (2023) contributes to tourism futures theory and research agenda by demonstrating how shifting consumer demand for nature-based experiences can drive the future evolution of accommodation services toward more sustainable and environmentally responsible models. The paper advances theoretical understanding of the relationship between tourism development, environmental sustainability and hospitality innovation, while offering a conceptual solution to the tension between increasing demand for nature-based tourism and the need to protect natural environments. Martin-Duque et al. (2023) advance this agenda by introducing machine learning approaches for addressing imbalanced tourism data and improving predictive models of tourist satisfaction and recommendation behaviour. The study advances the methodological foundations of tourism futures research by demonstrating how data-driven forecasting can enhance understanding of future consumer behaviour, improve recommendation systems and support more accurate and proactive tourism management strategies.

Tuomi and Zainal-Abidin (2025) contribute to tourism futures theory by advancing the concept of preferable tourism futures through a community-centred and participatory approach. Their study demonstrates that visions of sustainable tourism futures are shaped by local cultural values, community priorities and place-based contexts, thereby challenging universal or top-down approaches to futures thinking. By positioning residents as active agents in the creation of tourism futures, the paper strengthens the theoretical foundations of community-led, socially embedded and preferable futures research in tourism.

The papers featured in this issue demonstrate that tourism futures research is entering a new stage of maturity, one where theory development sits alongside methodological innovation and practical application. Collectively, the contributions move the field beyond a reliance on forecasting, trend analysis and scenario building towards a deeper understanding of the mechanisms that shape tourism futures. From Bingemer's development of the Tourism Futures Dynamics Theory (Bingemer, 2026) and Nomm et al.'s (2026) integration of foresight methods, to studies exploring artificial intelligence, AGI, space tourism, sustainability, big data and community-led futures, the authors show how tourism futures research can generate both theoretical insight and practical value. Importantly, these papers reinforce the argument that applied and theoretical research studies are not competing endeavours but mutually dependent forms of knowledge creation. Theory provides the conceptual foundations that explain change, while applied research tests, refines and extends those explanations in real-world contexts. As tourism faces unprecedented uncertainty arising from technological disruption, climate change, demographic change, geopolitical instability and shifting consumer values, the development of robust theories of tourism futures will become increasingly important. Together, the contributions in this issue provide a foundation for a richer and more rigorous tourism futures scholarship, one capable of explaining, imagining and shaping the futures of tourism.