The available equations for scour prediction downstream of a ski-jump bucket are mostly deterministic in nature and do not consider uncertainties of various scouring parameters adequately. A reliability-based assessment of scour in such situations is of paramount importance in examining the relationship between safety factor and reliability, which are considered to be key parameters for decisions in foundation design. This paper presents a methodology for the reliability assessment of scour downstream of a ski-jump bucket using the first-order reliability method (FORM). To study the influence of various random variables on the reliability against scouring, a sensitivity analysis is carried out. To achieve a desirable safety level in the design of a foundation, reliability-based safety factors are also proposed. The influence of correlation among the random variables on the reliability is also studied.
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December 2009
Research Article|
December 01 2009
Reliability analysis of scour downstream of a ski-jump bucket
M. Muzzammil, PhD;
M. Muzzammil, PhD
Reader
Department of Civil Engineering, Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh, India
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N. A. Siddiqui, PhD
N. A. Siddiqui, PhD
Assistant Professor
Department of Civil Engineering, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
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Publisher: Emerald Publishing
Revision Received:
April 29 2008
Accepted:
October 21 2008
Online ISSN: 1751-7729
Print ISSN: 1741-7589
© 2009 Thomas Telford Ltd
2009
Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Water Management (2009) 162 (6): 389–398.
Article history
Revision Received:
April 29 2008
Accepted:
October 21 2008
Citation
Muzzammil M, Siddiqui NA (2009), "Reliability analysis of scour downstream of a ski-jump bucket". Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Water Management, Vol. 162 No. 6 pp. 389–398, doi: https://doi.org/10.1680/wama.2009.162.6.389
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