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Purpose

Uncertainty is part and parcel of managerial decision-making processes, yet it poses challenges managers often prefer to avoid. Research has suggested that managers can recognize heuristic cues in uncertain environments to support their decisions. However, there are times when even these heuristics and cues are absent, leaving managers to confront radical uncertainty; a state characterized by a complete lack of probabilistic and qualitative information. This form of uncertainty is especially challenging as it involves grappling with unknown unknowns – unforeseen situations that are not anticipated and whose outcomes cannot be calculated. The purpose of this paper is to understand how managers and companies can navigate this.

Design/methodology/approach

In this In Motion paper, we partner up with two executive vice presidents to practically contribute to this understanding by examining a specific case: ASML – an innovation giant in the semiconductor industry that thrives under conditions of radical uncertainty. Specifically, we combine field observations and reflections to answer the research question: how do firms not just innovate but thrive amidst radical uncertainty?

Findings

We identify three critical approaches of ASML; managing foresight relationships, a dynamic and deliberate uncertainty approach and parallel team development and explain how these help managers under radical uncertainty. We also discuss the importance of organizational capabilities to bring together these different modules into a single, cohesive system that functions as intended. We conclude with a research agenda related to these three main points and radical uncertainty with the aim to identify actionable research directions for management scholars.

Originality/value

The case we analyze for In Motion is of particular interest and valuable to the audience of Management Decision. ASML offers a so-called extreme case to study radical uncertainty. Such cases are valuable because they offer rare insights into the management strategies of outstanding firms, enhanced by the practical perspectives of executives, which are typically difficult to access. Yet, the scarcity of such extreme events within a single organization implies very limited opportunities to observe this. As such, it is not surprising that we have relatively few studies that incorporate practical insights from extreme contexts. We, therefore, contend that studying the case of ASML provides a unique learning opportunity for management scholars and practitioners alike.

Uncertainty is inherent in managerial decision-making (e.g. Guata Martínez et al., 2024; Lee and Veloso, 2008), yet it often presents challenges that managers prefer to avoid (Brooks, 2011; Lin and Lee, 2004). Prior research offers valuable insights into managing uncertainty. For instance, sensemaking, knowledge acquisition, design thinking and strategic flexibility help managers address uncertainty in their decisions (e.g. Barton, 1990; Dinur, 2011; Elsbach and Stigliani, 2018; Hinojosa et al., 2020; Li et al., 2017). Additionally, managers can recognize heuristic cues in uncertain environments to support decision-making (Gigerenzer and Gaissmaier, 2011; West et al., 2020).

However, when such cues are absent, managers face a radical form of uncertainty marked by a total lack of probabilistic and qualitative information (e.g. Grandori, 2023; King and Kay, 2020). This type is particularly difficult, as it involves unknown unknowns, situations not anticipated and outcomes that cannot be calculated (Chen et al., 2024; Mullins, 2017; Wu and Dunning, 2018). Blind spots in decision-making are especially problematic when managers do not know where to direct their focus (Ng et al., 2009). In these cases, managers often adopt a “wait-and-see” approach, hoping uncertainty will diminish with time (Anderson, 2003) and allow them to become familiar with the unknown (Brimm, 2015; Kurdoglu et al., 2023). Yet, waiting is a luxury most cannot afford (Pardo del Val and Martinez Fuentes, 2003). Despite its importance, how firms successfully operate under radical uncertainty remains poorly understood (Foss, 2020; Furr and Eisenhardt, 2021; Kurdoglu et al., 2022). This In Motion article asks: How do firms thrive amid radical uncertainty?

Understanding this is crucial for several reasons. First, events like pandemics and technologies such as generative artificial intelligence (AI) have major implications for firm survival and performance. Second, approaches that rely on probabilities and cues are likely to be insufficient for radical uncertainty. Third, firms capable of managing radical uncertainty may discover opportunities beyond the reach of conventional risk and uncertainty management. Fourth, radical uncertainty represents a unique strategic environment where typical frameworks may not apply due to a lack of precedents or benchmarks.

To address this, we collaborated with two executive vice presidents to examine ASML, a global leader in semiconductor manufacturing, as an exemplary case of thriving under radical uncertainty. We identify three key practices at ASML: managing foresight relationships, applying a dynamic uncertainty approach, and developing parallel teams. These practical insights provide valuable lessons for managers operating in similar conditions. Our case serves as an example of radical uncertainty (Eisenhardt et al., 2016; Siggelkow, 2007), making it especially relevant (Caputo et al., 2022; Chen and Randolph-Seng, 2021). Specifically, ASML operates at the technological frontier under conditions of intense market volatility, high technological unpredictability, and supply chain disruptions, while inventing chipmaking machines for technologies yet to be realized. Despite holding nearly 90% market share, even ASML’s executives acknowledge that years of investment and research may not guarantee any success, while Apple’s iPhones and Nvidia’s chips depend entirely on ASML’s machinery. As the sole provider of this critical equipment, ASML occupies a unique role in a trillion-dollar global industry, offering rare insights into managing innovation amid high unpredictability. Our findings have practical relevance. Managers, even in top tech firms, must drive customer intimacy to understand evolving client needs and align with long-term strategies. They must adopt flexible, dynamic approaches and combine existing expertise with ongoing skill development. To stay ahead, teams should work on multiple modules in parallel to reduce delays and maintain momentum.

Uncertainty plays an undeniable vital role for organizations (e.g. Barney, 1986; Cyert and March, 1963; Simon, 1972), as it fundamentally helps understanding how managers make decisions in “real” situations (e.g. Alvarez et al., 2018). Frank Knight’s distinction between risk and uncertainty has been fundamental for management scholars to understand that uncertainty, unlike risk, implies that the future is incomplete, unknown, unavailable and/or unpredictable (e.g. Furr and Eggers, 2021; Knight, 1921). Given its broader importance to explaining profitability and competition, uncertainty cannot be neglected in management theory (Foss, 2024; Mintzberg, 1978).

Uncertainty is highly context-dependent and subjective, as such, it differs in its perceived gravity. Managers can recognize cues, i.e. qualitative information that can heuristically help calculate predictions about decision alternatives under uncertain circumstances (Kurdoglu et al., 2023). For example, they may form mental representations and scenarios to make sense of their assumptions and the future (Gavetti et al., 2005; Feduzi and Runde, 2014).

However, when these cues are hardly present or entirely lacking, managers enter a more radical state of uncertainty when they experience an inability to predict market changes, the nature and impact of these changes on business, how to react to these changes and how to predict the consequences of these choices (Ehrig and Foss, 2022a; King and Kay, 2020; Milliken, 1987). Radical examples of uncertainty are events that entirely disrupt the status quo (e.g. so-called Black Swans, Taleb, 2008), such as pandemics, conflicts and climate change incidents, as it increases managers’ uncertainty about predicting, understanding and responding (Selivanovskikh et al., 2025). Yet, radical uncertainty is not necessarily characterized by negative, disruptive episodes.

An example to illustrate this is the recent expansion of generative AI technologies, that bring obvious benefits to managers (e.g. reduces costs and efficiency), but so the more uncertainty about what it does exactly, how quickly it is advancing, and understanding possible drawbacks (Acar, 2024; Acar and Bastian, 2024). The key distinction here from situations where managers cannot know all the information about all the outcomes so that these cannot be meaningfully assigned, but these are not unknowable or unimaginable per se (Knight, 1921), is that radically uncertain future events lack ex ante descriptions, at least initially until managers become aware of them. For example, initially, there was considerable ignorance about what constituted a reasonable response to the pandemic. As these contingencies have neither been considered nor discussed, they remain absent from the awareness of innovation managers. Thus, anticipating and adapting to unforeseen future changes is hardly possible with radical uncertainty (Ehrig and Foss, 2022b). On the other hand, given recent radical uncertain occurrences, now that managers have developed a better understanding of, e.g. basic genAI knowledge, the implications of a pandemic or resource shortages due to a war by having experience with these disruptions, future, similar events are less likely to be perceived as radical uncertainty, as some descriptions and sense-making processes will now guide innovation managers with these prior unknown unknowns.

However, to date, we still know little about the management strategies of firms, perhaps because we lack practical perspectives and daily experiences of managers and executives who operate under highly uncertain circumstances (Hällgren et al., 2018). Therefore, the remainder of this article will focus on how managers navigate radical uncertainty.

ASML is a Dutch-based manufacturer of complex lithography systems critical to the production of microchips. ASML provides a crucial link to help chipmakers make their chips more advanced by decreasing their critical dimension further with a market capitalization of €250bn. The firm does so by inventing new lithography machines with new light sources, new optical and resistant materials and new processes. The global industry for smartphones, cars and medical devices heavily depends on ASML machines.

The development of ASML’s advanced lithography machinery is an ongoing process, yet under the continual pressure of radical uncertainty (Clark, 2021; Thornhill, 2021). ASML is uniquely positioned as the sole company capable of designing and innovating advanced chipmaking machinery. However, due to the a priori unknown nature of these technologies, even ASML’s executives face uncertainty regarding their ability to develop the next-generation machines, as the required technologies have yet to be realized.

To compete, the company must be aligned with the trajectory set by Moore’s law, which projects a doubling of computing power about every two years, thus requiring continual innovation despite market volatility (Miller, 2022). However, Moore’'s prediction has fallen behind schedule and may reach a dead end (Theis and Wong, 2017). At the same time, the global demand for semiconductors is growing exponentially, driven by advancements in technologies such as generative AI and the widespread use of electronic devices. Experts estimate the global semiconductor industry “to become a trillion-dollar industry by 2030” (Burkacky et al., 2022).

For this study, we combine semi-structured interviews, field observations and reflections based on the insights of two executive vice presidents who are co-authors of this article (e.g. Alvesson and Sköldberg, 2017; Bastian and Zucchella, 2023) to answer our research question: how do firms not just innovate but thrive amidst radical uncertainty?

This study uses a grounded theory approach (Glaser and Strauss, 1967) to investigate how entrepreneurs apply their cognitive insights in building their ventures. To support this, the Gioia protocol (Gioia et al., 2013) is employed to capture and interpret individual experiences and the underlying social and psychological dynamics. The process involves identifying initial categories from interview data, refining them through comparative analysis and developing second-order themes and broader aggregate dimensions, which collectively shape the data structure shown in Figure 1. Moreover, we build on “me-search” that guides researchers through personal experiences generating “idiosyncratic knowledge to provide unique insights into a phenomenon” (Shepherd et al., 2021, p. 956) to support our inductive methodology. Specifically, me-search helps researchers to provide an understanding of the role of context that can push the limits of existing theories or enrich current models with additional context to generate new research questions (Shepherd, 2025; Wiklund, 2016).

Figure 1
A data structure diagram links first order concepts to second order themes and aggregated dimensions.The diagram shows three vertical sections labeled on top from left to right as follows: “1st order concepts”, “2nd order themes”, and “Aggregated dimensions.” In the “1st order concepts” section, there are eight text boxes arranged from top to bottom: Text box 1: “Prioritizing customer intimacy alongside technological innovation” and “Technological expertise with a strong focus on customer relationships.” Text box 2: “Building trust through transparent communication and solution-oriented communication” and “Clearly demonstrating feasible, tailored solutions.” Text box 3: “Proactively identifying unrecognized customer challenges” and “Anticipating and resolving issues through proactive engagement.” Text box 4: “Navigating the increasing challenge of balancing value versus risk” and “Facing high-stakes decisions.” Text box 5: “Driving proactive decision-making and problem solving” and “Encouraging a culture of individuals to take responsibility.” Text box 6: “Enhancing product performance through feedback” and “Integrating real-time customer experience to drive product improvements.” Text box 7: “Managing responsibility amidst chaos” and “Judgment for high-stakes decision-making in challenging environments.” Text box 8: “Recognizing system integration at the customer level as critical uncertainty” and “Challenges to align system readiness with customer processes.” Each text box in the “1st order concepts” section has a rightward arrow pointing to a corresponding text box in the “2nd order themes” section. The eight text boxes in the “2nd order themes” section are labeled, from top to bottom: “Customer over technology,” “Entrust safeguarding,” “Anticipate unknown unknowns,” “Multidimensional strategy,” “Problems decomposed,” “Innovation in parallel,” “Comfort with chaos,” and “Integration related uncertainty.” Each text box in the “2nd order themes” section has a rightward arrow pointing to a text box in the “Aggregated dimensions” section. The text boxes in the “Aggregated dimensions” section are labeled, from top to bottom: “Customer foresight,” “Dynamic uncertainty approach,” and “Parallel team development.” Arrows from “Customer over technology,” “Entrust safeguarding,” and “Anticipate unknown unknowns” lead to “Customer foresight.” Arrows from “Multidimensional strategy,” “Problems decomposed,” and “Innovation in parallel” lead to “Dynamic uncertainty approach.” Arrows from “Comfort with chaos” and “Integration related uncertainty” lead to “Parallel team development.”

Data structure. Source: Authors’ own work

Figure 1
A data structure diagram links first order concepts to second order themes and aggregated dimensions.The diagram shows three vertical sections labeled on top from left to right as follows: “1st order concepts”, “2nd order themes”, and “Aggregated dimensions.” In the “1st order concepts” section, there are eight text boxes arranged from top to bottom: Text box 1: “Prioritizing customer intimacy alongside technological innovation” and “Technological expertise with a strong focus on customer relationships.” Text box 2: “Building trust through transparent communication and solution-oriented communication” and “Clearly demonstrating feasible, tailored solutions.” Text box 3: “Proactively identifying unrecognized customer challenges” and “Anticipating and resolving issues through proactive engagement.” Text box 4: “Navigating the increasing challenge of balancing value versus risk” and “Facing high-stakes decisions.” Text box 5: “Driving proactive decision-making and problem solving” and “Encouraging a culture of individuals to take responsibility.” Text box 6: “Enhancing product performance through feedback” and “Integrating real-time customer experience to drive product improvements.” Text box 7: “Managing responsibility amidst chaos” and “Judgment for high-stakes decision-making in challenging environments.” Text box 8: “Recognizing system integration at the customer level as critical uncertainty” and “Challenges to align system readiness with customer processes.” Each text box in the “1st order concepts” section has a rightward arrow pointing to a corresponding text box in the “2nd order themes” section. The eight text boxes in the “2nd order themes” section are labeled, from top to bottom: “Customer over technology,” “Entrust safeguarding,” “Anticipate unknown unknowns,” “Multidimensional strategy,” “Problems decomposed,” “Innovation in parallel,” “Comfort with chaos,” and “Integration related uncertainty.” Each text box in the “2nd order themes” section has a rightward arrow pointing to a text box in the “Aggregated dimensions” section. The text boxes in the “Aggregated dimensions” section are labeled, from top to bottom: “Customer foresight,” “Dynamic uncertainty approach,” and “Parallel team development.” Arrows from “Customer over technology,” “Entrust safeguarding,” and “Anticipate unknown unknowns” lead to “Customer foresight.” Arrows from “Multidimensional strategy,” “Problems decomposed,” and “Innovation in parallel” lead to “Dynamic uncertainty approach.” Arrows from “Comfort with chaos” and “Integration related uncertainty” lead to “Parallel team development.”

Data structure. Source: Authors’ own work

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To ensure a comprehensive understanding of the phenomenon under investigation, we employed a multi-stage data collection approach that combined prolonged engagement, direct observation and systematic triangulation of multiple data sources. The data collection process was structured across three distinct phases: pre-interview engagement, primary data collection through semi-structured interviews and field observations and post-interview validation and reflection.

Firstly, the first author conducted preliminary conversations with different ASML stakeholders to gain a contextual understanding and develop a plan before the formal data collection process. Then, our primary data collection process was conducted with the two executive directors using a carefully developed interview protocol, while field observations during two company visits provided contextual data about organizational practices and decision-making processes. Third, follow-up conversations enabled us to clarify responses and collection of additional contextual information after the formal interview process. This post-interview engagement served as an important methodological function, as it allowed for further theorizing of initial interpretations (Alvesson and Kärreman, 2011; Creswell and Poth, 2016).

We additionally integrated these personal experiences, both from the first author and the two executive directors, with different sources within the analysis (Gioia et al., 2013; Eisenhardt, 1989), such as field notes, company materials, websites and news articles, to have a triangulated understanding of managerial approaches under radical uncertainty (Bluhm et al., 2011; Farquhar et al., 2020). Lastly, we conducted several online reflection meetings to triangulate the sum of these data sources (Leech and Onwuegbuzie, 2007).

Our insights show that the three critical managerial approaches under radical uncertainty require managers to cultivate trust by going beyond generating immediate customer insights and focusing instead on tapping into their clients’ future aspirations and visions. Customer foresight represents a process of understanding and aligning long-term product roadmaps by anticipating potential long-term challenges and proposing solutions that may not yet be apparent to customers.

Second, we highlight a distinguished uncertainty management approach to radical uncertainty that is deliberate, customized, dynamic and goes beyond product delivery. This involves building on existing expertise and simultaneously acquiring new skills. Specifically, new types of unknowns bring forth new problems, requiring engineers to develop entirely new competencies from scratch. In this process, ASML managers need to be comfortable with chaos; decisions must be calculated, yet made with the understanding that managing this process often demands charting unexplored territories.

Third, our insights highlight a unique managerial process in which teams work on 30–50 modules in parallel. In this process, pausing occurs rarely and any team proposing a halt is simultaneously tasked with finding a path to move forward. These three distinctive approaches to radical uncertainty are elaborated in the following sections. Additionally, given the centrality of the concept of uncertainty to the case narrative, we link these three managerial approaches to Milliken's (1987) uncertainty dimensions.

Central to ASML’s strategy is a thorough understanding that it is not primarily a technological company; instead, the firm positions itself as a customer company. The foundation of ASML’s competitive advantage lies, counterintuitively, not merely in its status as the sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines (EUV). Yet, ASML has specialized in its trust-building capacity with customers so that these share plans and future projections for the next 5–10 years, building on which ASML could develop the next $1tn breakthrough (Financial Times, 2021). ASML’s trust with their customers has been cultivated by a constant promise to deliver consistently. A clear illustration of this faith in ASML is that their customers – such as Samsung, Intel and TSMC, heavily invest in the company as they work on their revolutionary EUV technology (IBM, 2023). Intel alone invested $4 bn in ASML in 2012 (Miller, 2022). As a result, customers perceive ASML not merely as suppliers but as trusted partners, entrusted with safeguarding their most critical and proprietary trade secrets, both on the technological and executive levels. Trust goes beyond parties being comfortable interacting and exchanging information frequently; it also includes sharing confidential processes.

However, achieving credibility as a trusted partner requires a deeper understanding beyond addressing immediate customer demands. In particular, ASML deals with state uncertainty, which occurs when managers lack sufficient information to predict market trends and changes (Milliken, 1987). To cope with this type of uncertainty, ASML strives to go beyond generating immediate customer insights and additionally focuses on tapping into their clients’ future aspirations and visions. This process is represented by customer foresight – an understanding and alignment on long-term product roadmaps, anticipating and addressing potential long-term challenges that clients themselves may not yet recognize (customer unknown unknowns, Clark, 2017; Dunning, 2011; Mullins, 2017) and offering scenarios that may solve these problems. At the executive level, the company holds periodic product roadmap alignment meetings. However, this alone remains insufficient, as roadmap alignment is complemented by an ongoing and collaborative exchange at the engineering level. For example, ASML stations engineering units at the customer site to capture and resolve technical issues, but so the more to incorporate solutions in the next iterations of their systems. As a result, ASML adopts a customer-driven “continuous improvement” philosophy, where the firm is dedicated to learning from customer foresight issues to improve their systems. A concrete illustration of how this has led to a competitive advantage is the finalization of the first installation of ASML’s High NA EUV system (TWINSCAN EXE:5,000) at one of their major customers, which has been ten years in the making in collaboration with partners and customers who have heavily invested in this technology with ASML (ASML, 2024).

Organizations and industries vary in terms of their tolerance for risk and uncertainty. For example, while the insurance sector is known for its cautious approach, Silicon Valley is the embodiment of uncertainty seeking (Guzman and Stern, 2015). For ASML, given the complexity of their products, uncertainty strategies are multi-dimensional as high precision is imperative to achieve superior levels of operational excellence, while minor inaccuracies can result in substantial costs (Cristofaro et al., 2024; Furr and Eisenhardt, 2021; Griffin and Grote, 2020). ASML's approach to effect uncertainty is deliberate, customized, and dynamic. Specifically, ASML needs to manage effect uncertainty, which describes the difficulty managers have in predicting impact on business (Milliken, 1987).

The firm recognizes that uncertainty is not a single entity and, as a result, breaks down uncertainty by adopting a modular development approach. In practice, this means decomposing each lithography system into discrete functional units that can be developed independently yet integrated seamlessly. For instance, a single EUV machine contains over 100,000 parts organized into major modules: the light source module (generating extreme ultraviolet light), the optical system module (containing ultra-precise mirrors), the wafer stage module (for nanometer-level positioning) and the metrology module (for measurement and calibration). At any given time, product development works on 30–50 modules in parallel.

Each module is worked on by individual teams, but all teams work in parallel. Parallelization implies that while one team innovates on a particular module, another team can work on a different aspect (Zientara and Müller-Seitz, 2024). This accelerates the overall development process and brings substantial cost advantages; if one module faces a setback or does not meet expectations, it can be repurposed or used elsewhere, while other modules keep progressing as planned.

An illustration of ASML’s uncertainty approach can be seen in the development of an advanced metrology tool used in semiconductor manufacturing. The system comprises over 4,000 simple and complex components and must achieve extraordinary precision in measuring critical dimensions on wafers. At the project’s initiation, they faced considerable unknowns about the challenges ahead. Yet, by treating uncertainty as customized and dynamic, different engineering teams effectively managed numerous design changes and adjustments throughout the development process. The modular structure allowed these changes to be handled without disrupting overall progress. The success of this collaboration is reflected in the delivery of over 1,000 Main Module Sub Assembly (MMSA) modules.

A direct result of ASML’s dynamic and deliberate uncertainty approach is that ASML customizes it is uncertainty tolerance based on the nature of its modules and the different systems these modules are in. For example, established modules, such as the lens and the wafer stage where protocols are tried and tested, have an expectation of near-perfect execution. In this way, managers are stimulated to minimize risks and uncertainties.

Conversely, in the exploration of innovation, as exemplified by the development of EUV technology, ASML adopts a strategic shift. In such instances, a degree of uncertainty is inherently unavoidable (O'Connor and Rice, 2013). These decisions are not impulsive risks but represent carefully considered choices grounded in the recognition that genuine innovation often demands venturing into uncharted domains (Sainio et al., 2012). This involves building on the organization’s current expertise while requiring the development of new skill sets. For example, new types of machines bring forth new types of problems, requiring engineers to develop entirely new competencies from scratch (Rapp and Olbrich, 2023). Such competencies are essential as they serve as the building blocks to deliberately address uncertainty. The ultimate objective is adjusting potential risks and anticipated rewards while exploring potential innovative breakthroughs. This requires ASML managers to be comfortable with some level of chaos.

However, parallel team development brings forward response uncertainty, which implies additional challenges for managers in determining how to react and the consequences of future actions (Milliken, 1987). ASML’s approach to response uncertainty management extends beyond the scope of product delivery. The company proactively addresses integration-related uncertainty–potential challenges and disruptions that may arise during the incorporation of their products into the established systems and processes of their customers. ASML’s modular approach ties to a procurement strategy which aims to source the modules at their suppliers as “high level qualified buys” instead of individual components. To mitigate these uncertainties, ASML has dedicated “New Product Introduction” teams that are organized to deal with these types of issues. Modularity offers many advantages on paper, yet it is challenging to coordinate different modules for managers. One key competence needed to establish this is system integration; the ability to bring together all different modules into a single, cohesive system that functions as intended. As a result, ASML has established a dedicated department to facilitate this integration, which oversees product performance, risks and uncertainties and system architecture. A recent example of how this approach has strengthened ASML’s organizational resilience is the appointment of its first Head of AI Program and Strategy in June 2024. This key role is dedicated to identifying opportunities to optimize speed and quality within R&D teams, increase product leadership excellence and improve operational efficiency (ASML, 2024). Speed is important for ASML’s teams, as it helps reduce the time-to-market for technology improvements while maintaining reliability and technical excellence of the outputs produced.

The managerial approaches above and their respective uncertainty types are illustrated by Figure 2, a framework for managing radical uncertainty through a dynamic uncertainty approach that connects customer foresight (at the customer level) and parallel team development (at the team level). On the customer level, this approach is supported by system integration, in which ASML co-creates anticipating scenarios about unknown unknowns with their clients and safeguards trust in which interacting and exchanging information includes sharing high-level confidential processes.

Figure 2
A diagram shows customer and team levels linked to uncertainty dimensions through loops and managerial approach blocks.The diagram shows two horizontal dashed rectangles labeled “Customer Level” on top and “Team Level” at bottom. To the right of these two rectangles are three dashed small vertical rectangles labeled from top to bottom as follows: “State Uncertainty,” “Effect Uncertainty,” and “Response Uncertainty.” Inside the “Customer Level” rectangle, there is a text box labeled “Customer foresight” on the left. Below it is another text box labeled “Dynamic uncertainty approach,” which is positioned on the boundary between the “Customer Level” and “Team Level” rectangles. Below this is another text box labeled “Parallel team development,” located inside the “Team Level” rectangle. The text “Customer intimacy” appears between “Customer foresight” and “Dynamic uncertainty approach.” The text “Technological innovation” appears between “Dynamic uncertainty approach” and “Parallel team development.” Curved arrows connect “Customer foresight,” “Dynamic uncertainty approach,” and “Parallel team development” in a loop between the two horizontal rectangles. To the right is a dashed vertical rectangle labeled “Crucial managerial approaches” spanning both the “Customer Level” and “Team Level” rectangles. Inside this dashed rectangle, at the top, there are two text boxes placed side by side, labeled “Entrust safeguarding” and “Anticipate unknown unknowns,” positioned in the “Customer Level” rectangle. A downward arrow from these text boxes leads to a text box labeled “System integration,” positioned on the boundary between the “Customer Level” and “Team Level” rectangles. A vertical double-headed arrow connects “System integration” to a text box below labeled “Decomposing problems,” positioned in the “Team Level” rectangle. A downward arrow from “Decomposing problems” leads to two text boxes placed side by side labeled “Innovation in parallel” and “Comfort with chaos.”

ASML’s multi-dimensional uncertainty strategy Source: Authors’ own work

Figure 2
A diagram shows customer and team levels linked to uncertainty dimensions through loops and managerial approach blocks.The diagram shows two horizontal dashed rectangles labeled “Customer Level” on top and “Team Level” at bottom. To the right of these two rectangles are three dashed small vertical rectangles labeled from top to bottom as follows: “State Uncertainty,” “Effect Uncertainty,” and “Response Uncertainty.” Inside the “Customer Level” rectangle, there is a text box labeled “Customer foresight” on the left. Below it is another text box labeled “Dynamic uncertainty approach,” which is positioned on the boundary between the “Customer Level” and “Team Level” rectangles. Below this is another text box labeled “Parallel team development,” located inside the “Team Level” rectangle. The text “Customer intimacy” appears between “Customer foresight” and “Dynamic uncertainty approach.” The text “Technological innovation” appears between “Dynamic uncertainty approach” and “Parallel team development.” Curved arrows connect “Customer foresight,” “Dynamic uncertainty approach,” and “Parallel team development” in a loop between the two horizontal rectangles. To the right is a dashed vertical rectangle labeled “Crucial managerial approaches” spanning both the “Customer Level” and “Team Level” rectangles. Inside this dashed rectangle, at the top, there are two text boxes placed side by side, labeled “Entrust safeguarding” and “Anticipate unknown unknowns,” positioned in the “Customer Level” rectangle. A downward arrow from these text boxes leads to a text box labeled “System integration,” positioned on the boundary between the “Customer Level” and “Team Level” rectangles. A vertical double-headed arrow connects “System integration” to a text box below labeled “Decomposing problems,” positioned in the “Team Level” rectangle. A downward arrow from “Decomposing problems” leads to two text boxes placed side by side labeled “Innovation in parallel” and “Comfort with chaos.”

ASML’s multi-dimensional uncertainty strategy Source: Authors’ own work

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On the team level, we find a strong focus on decomposing problems by encouraging innovation in parallel, in which product development teams work on different modules at the same time and embracing a culture of chaos, in which teams have to be comfortable with the unknowability of innovation futures.

Building on our analysis of ASML’s strategic approaches, we present an actionable framework for organizational leaders facing radical uncertainty (Figure 3). The framework operationalizes the three core strategies–customer foresight relationships, dynamic uncertainty management and parallel team development – into systematic phases that managers can implement. For each strategy, we outline an (1) assessment phase to evaluate current capabilities, specific (2) implementation actions to build competencies for each strategy and potential (3) barriers with corresponding mitigation strategies.

Figure 3
A diagram shows customer foresight relationships, dynamic uncertainty management, and parallel team development stages.The diagram shows three columns arranged in a horizontal row from left to right. Each column contains three sections labeled “Assessment Phase,” “Implementation Actions,” and “Barriers and Mitigation.” The left column is labeled “Customer Foresight Relationships.” The section labeled “Assessment Phase” contains two bullet points: “Trust assessment” and “Foresight gap analysis.” The section labeled “Implementation Actions” contains three bullet points: “Multi-level relationships,” “On-site technical teams,” and “Shared long-term roadmaps.” The section labeled “Barriers and Mitigation” contains three bullet points: “Information sharing barriers,” “Tiered confidentiality protocols,” and “Trust-building initiatives.” The middle column is labeled “Dynamic Uncertainty Management.” The section labeled “Assessment Phase” contains two bullet points: “Uncertainty portfolio mapping” and “Capability gap analysis.” The section labeled “Implementation Actions” contains three bullet points: “Modularize uncertainty,” “Differential governance,” and “Ambidextrous leadership.” The section labeled “Barriers and Mitigation” contains three bullet points: “Uniform risk approaches,” “Cultural resistance,” and “Experimentation.” The right column is labeled “Parallel Team Development.” The section labeled “Assessment Phase” contains two bullet points: “Modularity assessment” and “Coordination capability analysis.” The section labeled “Implementation Actions” contains three bullet points: “Module independence,” “‘No pause’ protocols,” and “System integration capabilities.” The section labeled “Barriers and Mitigation” contains three bullet points: “Cross-team coordination,” “Agile practices,” and “Modular resource allocation.”

Managerial framework for managing radical uncertainty. Source: Authors’ own work

Figure 3
A diagram shows customer foresight relationships, dynamic uncertainty management, and parallel team development stages.The diagram shows three columns arranged in a horizontal row from left to right. Each column contains three sections labeled “Assessment Phase,” “Implementation Actions,” and “Barriers and Mitigation.” The left column is labeled “Customer Foresight Relationships.” The section labeled “Assessment Phase” contains two bullet points: “Trust assessment” and “Foresight gap analysis.” The section labeled “Implementation Actions” contains three bullet points: “Multi-level relationships,” “On-site technical teams,” and “Shared long-term roadmaps.” The section labeled “Barriers and Mitigation” contains three bullet points: “Information sharing barriers,” “Tiered confidentiality protocols,” and “Trust-building initiatives.” The middle column is labeled “Dynamic Uncertainty Management.” The section labeled “Assessment Phase” contains two bullet points: “Uncertainty portfolio mapping” and “Capability gap analysis.” The section labeled “Implementation Actions” contains three bullet points: “Modularize uncertainty,” “Differential governance,” and “Ambidextrous leadership.” The section labeled “Barriers and Mitigation” contains three bullet points: “Uniform risk approaches,” “Cultural resistance,” and “Experimentation.” The right column is labeled “Parallel Team Development.” The section labeled “Assessment Phase” contains two bullet points: “Modularity assessment” and “Coordination capability analysis.” The section labeled “Implementation Actions” contains three bullet points: “Module independence,” “‘No pause’ protocols,” and “System integration capabilities.” The section labeled “Barriers and Mitigation” contains three bullet points: “Cross-team coordination,” “Agile practices,” and “Modular resource allocation.”

Managerial framework for managing radical uncertainty. Source: Authors’ own work

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For managers, the customer foresight component of the framework focuses on developing and assessing trust and mechanisms that provide early signals about future challenges. To implement this into actions, managers may work on building multi-level relationships, deploy on-site technical teams and develop shared long-term roadmaps with clients. For example, a manager could build multi-level relationships by scheduling quarterly executive meetings with client leadership while establishing weekly technical working sessions between junior team members. This dual-level engagement may improve both strategic alignment and operational integration. In this way, both the big-picture decisions and day-to-day work stay connected. However, potential barriers to achieving this may involve customer reluctance to share proprietary information, which may be mitigated by confidential protocols and building trust.

A dynamic uncertainty management approach implies that managers differentiate uncertainty by categorizing initiatives based on their uncertainty return levels and by identifying the differences between an organization’s current capabilities and the capabilities required to find potential gaps. This requires implementation actions such as modularizing uncertainty across different organizational units, establishing differential governance mechanisms, and developing ambidextrous leadership capabilities. Managers could use different rules for different types of projects by letting teams make quick decisions on new experiments while requiring more approvals for important existing work. For example, managers could establish a two-track governance system: innovation projects may receive same-day approval from team leads, while core business changes require cross-functional reviews. This creates clear decision-making thresholds so that teams can navigate independently. In this way, teams can try out new initiatives while protecting established revenue streams. However, dynamic uncertainty strategies may have barriers, such as organizational preferences for uniform risk management approaches and cultural resistance to acknowledging unknowns that could be overcome when organizations can experiment with strategies.

For the development of parallel teams, managers should execute multiple pathways simultaneously between different development teams while at the same time ensuring coordination between these teams. The implementation of such an approach may involve the establishment of module independence, “no pause” protocols and the development of strong system integration capabilities. For instance, managers could ensure that when one team hits a roadblock, other teams continue development against the agreed interface specifications to reduce project delays. This is, however, challenging, as different teams and managers may prioritize tasks and cross-team alignment may slow down working processes. Managers may overcome such challenges by implementing short cycles (e.g. agile sprints) that allow teams to adapt quickly to changing conditions or by giving managers autonomy over their allocated modules of resources.

Our inductive study relies on theoretical sampling, which involves selecting cases based on their capacity to illuminate and extend relationships (Eisenhardt and Graebner, 2007). Yet, researchers can employ theoretical sampling to strengthen theoretical generalizability by sampling across relevant categories (Seidel and O'Mahony, 2014). Indeed, the three strategic approaches we identified have broader applicability across diverse industries facing radical uncertainty at different degrees, such as financial services, pharmaceutical and biotechnology, healthcare or AI and computing (e.g. Field et al., 2006; Pomare et al., 2019). For example, customer foresight relationships can be valuable in financial services, where banks and insurance firms can build deeper connections with regulators and clients to anticipate regulatory shifts and market disruptions (Costanzo, 2004). In healthcare, organizations can implement dynamic uncertainty management with precision requirements in established treatment protocols with exploratory approaches for novel diseases or pandemic responses. Likewise, pharmaceutical companies can pursue multiple parallel development pathways for the same therapeutic target, with diverse teams exploring different molecular approaches simultaneously (see He et al., 2022). Indeed, the core principles we identify – developing trust-based relationships that enable foresight, differentiating approaches to uncertainty based on context and maintaining forward momentum through parallel pathways – represent generalizable capabilities that organizations across these diverse sectors can adapt to their specific contexts. Nevertheless, the implementation of these approaches will vary based on, e.g. industry-specific characteristics, the nature of stakeholder relationships and the predominant types of uncertainty faced.

To help researchers to make the most of the potential offered by managerial strategies under radical uncertainty, Table 1 presents a future research agenda with illustrative research questions. Firstly, we see fruitful new contributions from scholars that explore the role of customer foresight relationships when coping with radical uncertainty. This research stream is critical as customer foresight becomes increasingly vital for innovation in uncertain environments. Secondly, future research should explore the micro-foundations of dynamic uncertainty management to explain what enables firms to thrive, not just survive, under radical uncertainty. Third, future research should explore the role of parallel innovation management for managers. This research stream is essential to understand the coordination mechanisms and knowledge transfer between parallel teams.

Table 1

Future research directions to understand approaches for radical uncertainty

Research topicFuture research example questions
Customer Foresight Relationships
Organizations need deeper understanding of how to build and maintain customer relationships that enable foresight under radical uncertainty
  • What are different managerial practices that help understand how customer foresight relationship develops?

  • How can firms develop mechanisms to translate customer insights into innovation strategies?

  • How can organizations adjust multiple strategic customer relationships while protecting confidential information?

Dynamic Uncertainty Management
Organizations must learn to operate with different uncertainty tolerance levels across units while maintaining cohesion
  • How can firms develop mechanisms to shift between different uncertainty management approaches as needed?

  • Which system integration capabilities and organizational learning mechanisms are critical for managers to operate with different uncertainty tolerance levels?

  • What are best practices of firms operating on high degrees of uncertainty, and what are they key insights for managers to cope with such uncertainty?

Parallel Innovation Management
Research must address how organizations can effectively manage multiple parallel innovation streams in uncertain environments
  • How can firms develop capabilities to integrate parallel development modules and manage resource allocation across projects with varying uncertainty levels?

  • What are best practices to create a culture in which organizations cultivate being comfortable with levels of chaos?

  • What role do technological investments and digital tools play in the adaptability of organizations pursuing parallel innovation streams under uncertainty?

Source(s): Authors’ own work

Besides the above direction, future research should develop practical frameworks and tools in three interconnected areas. Firstly, in researching building trust-based strategic customer relationships that enable foresight. For example, tools that enable scenario planning and best practices in how scenario planning supports anticipating changes and preparing strategies to address uncertainty may provide valuable insights for managers. Perhaps perspectives from complexity theory or systems thinking could be useful here, as organizations are complex systems made up of interconnected parts (e.g. relationships, patterns and feedback loops) that evolve and adapt within a system over time (Okwir et al., 2018; White, 1995).

Practical frameworks and tools should also be developed to create organizational capabilities for dynamic uncertainty management and establish effective systems for parallel innovation management. For example, essential knowledge for managers can be delivered with insights on frameworks and tools that support organizations with strategic foresight or simulations to test organizational responses to different uncertain scenarios. These areas are not independent but rather form an integrated approach to thriving under radical uncertainty. In the end, success requires excellence across all three dimensions, as demonstrated by organizations like ASML that have mastered this complex interplay.

This article contributes to a deeper understanding of how firms thrive under radical uncertainty. Although its importance, we still know little about how firms and managers operate successfully under radical uncertainty (Foss, 2020; Furr and Eisenhardt, 2021; Kurdoglu et al., 2022). By analyzing ASML as an extreme case, we contribute to this emerging literature by illustrating which managerial strategies can serve as responses.

While our analysis centers on ASML, the strategic approaches identified may hold relevance for organizations across industries that contend with radical uncertainty. Due to the qualitative nature of our study, the extent to which these approaches can be transferred depends on industry-specific dynamics, stakeholder relationships and the nature of uncertainty faced in each context. The future managerial research directions to better understand how customer foresight relationships support innovation, how micro-foundations enable firms to thrive through uncertainty management and the mechanisms underpinning parallel innovation management may be helpful in this regard. To conclude, ASML’s primary strength lies not solely in the machines they manufacture, but more so in the trust the firm has built over the years. As the company looks to the future, their focus is not only on navigating technological uncertainties but also on preserving their well-earned trust, which remains the ultimate competitive advantage in a rapidly evolving technological world.

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