2020 climate target in Europe requires major cuts
Virtually all EU countries will have to make large cuts in greenhouse gases to ensure “fair” contributions to its goal of a 20 per cent reduction by 2020. Mediterranean countries that escaped lightly in the EU’s existing“burden sharing” arrangement running up to 2008-2012 will be hit hardest. EU leaders backed the 20 per cent by 2020 target earlier in 2007 and the European Commission has begun the politically delicate task of working out how each country should be asked to contribute. No numbers have been put publicly on the table until now. The German economics research institute DIW has tried to provide some data and has established that taking into account progress by each EU country since 1990 and national shares of emissions, every EU-25 country except Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will have to cut emissions by between 13 and 28 per cent between 2004 and 2020.
Under the EU-15 burden sharing arrangement for Kyoto, national targets varied wildly from minus 28 per cent for Luxembourg to plus 27 per cent for Portugal. Performance against targets has also varied and many states are well off track to meet their Kyoto targets. Under DIW’s model, only Portugal among EU-15 countries (at plus 3 per cent) would be allowed any emissions increase between 1990 and 2020. Ireland, Greece and Spain, which were also permitted big increases up to 2008-2012, would have to reduce by 6 per cent, 6 per cent and 11 per cent respectively. At the top end of the scale, the UK would have to reduce by 30 per cent and Germany by 31 per cent. Taking into account countries’actual progress since 1990, or the lack of it, fair contributions to 20 per cent by 2020 would require even more equality, DIW calculates.
Among EU-15 countries, Germany, at 17 per cent, would actually have the easiest challenge, followed by the UK with 18 per cent. All other countries would have to reduce emissions by 20 per cent or more from 2004 levels. The countries with the toughest challenge would be Spain (28 percent), Portugal (27 percent), Ireland and Greece (both 25 percent), which were allowed the biggest rises up to 2008-2012 – and up to 2004 have overshot their limits by huge margins.
According to DIW, the EU-10 new member states will also have to make very meaningful contributions. Aside from Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, required reductions from 2004 to 2020 will range from 13 per cent for Hungary and 14 per cent for Slovakia to minus 27 per cent each for Malta and Cyprus, two countries that, uniquely, have no Kyoto greenhouse gas target.
