South Korea: Who will ride the dragon?

Constitutional uncertainty clouds the horizon in South Korea. Despite a strongly rebounding economy, uncertainty continues over the timing and format of the elections that will replace President Chun Doo Hwan. Student and labor protest could increase significantly if the ruling Democratic Justice Party (D]P) and the opposition New Korea Democratic Party (NKDP) fail to achieve a compromise on revising the constitution and holding elections. A substantial increase in political turmoil could lead to Chun's refusal to leave office or a military coup. It could also threaten the staging of the 1988 Olympics in Seoul, which in turn would reverse the country's current economic trend. If open elections were held, the DJP and the NKDP would have about the same chance of winning. An NKDP regime, however, would be more restrictive toward international business and trade than the current government.