Future mapping: A new approach to managing strategic uncertainty

We must expect the future to surprise us. Our worst pratfalls occur when we become overly proud of our ability to manage the future. Just when we finally learn to live with inflation, we're plagued by deflation. The oil price trends of the 1970s caught everyone by surprise, but no sooner did industry invest to conserve, than the glut struck. Government budget deficits have reached staggering proportions, but even the most wide‐eyed optimists didn't forecast inflation rates of just 3–4 percent, and interest rates gradually floating downward.