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Today's CEOs are appropriately skeptical of estimates provided by the firm's staff and outside consultants about the results alternative policy recommendations will have on the price of their firm's stock. One reason for such skepticism is first‐hand experience with those short‐term price swings that seem unrelated to the fundamental, longer term factors affecting the proper value of the firm. If the market is efficient, and if price is set by forecasts of a longer term stream of cash receipts, how can the firm's stock (relative to the S&P 500) be so volatile? And if the stock is volatile in the short run, how can the various claims for shareholder value policies be reliable for the longer run?

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