Numerical tests for the business environment

The planner who is asked to justify an economic forecast — for example, an average annual inflation rate of 6.5% during the next five years — can respond with detailed quantitative information produced by a sophisticated econometric model based on forecasting trends. He or she will also be able to support that forecast with a comparable one prepared by any of several well‐known econometric forecasting services. To a manager who is not an expert in the mysteries of econometrics, the planner's approach will appear to be rational, objective, unbiased. For both manager and planner, there is “security in numbers.”