Coloring in the lines: the role of segregation and majority-minority districts in local descriptive representation

The urban politics literature finds municipal elections are highly racialized, but it is unclear how this is reflected in redistricting. I analyze the implementation of majority-minority districts in 133 US cities during the 2010 redistricting cycle. I find that in cities where Black or Hispanic citizens are minorities, they are proportionally underrepresented in city council districts, but are overrepresented in cities where they make up the majority. To isolate the role of residential segregation, I use a Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from the underlying distribution of plausible maps. The proportion of Hispanic-majority districts implemented generally matches median simulated plans, but nearly one-third of cities implemented more Black-majority districts than the median simulation. The proportion of Black city council members positively predicts the gap between the median proportion of majority-minority districts simulated and the proportion implemented. I then link this data to the electoral outcomes of racially identified candidates. I find that majority-minority and majority-White districts elect co-racial or co-ethnic candidates in over 75% of elections (n = 2,434). Finally, I predict the number of Black and Hispanic councilors elected under simulated plans. Implemented plans led to an estimated 9.5% more Black councilors on average, but roughly the same number of Hispanic councilors.