Is the cost of acquiring players in line with the performance on the field? Are there any systematic biases in domestic and foreign player valuations in the presence of temporal shift and panel persistence?
2,547 player-season observations (2015–2024) were utilized by applying fixed effects (FE) regression to limit the effects of individual heterogeneity and valuation persistence. The methodology entails the construction of performance indices and temporal stability checks within an era and propensity score matching to control selection bias.
Domestic players are always able to perform better against foreign counterparts (81.2 vs. 74.6 index score) at a lower average cost (42.9%). The market requires a 21.6–40.8% premium which foreign players have but is not supported by statistical output. Low-cost domestic players have a 30.5% sporting ROI as compared to 3.0% of the high-cost foreign stars. Statistic parameters of performance a, b and g indicate that there is an upward trend in the statistic of bowling efficiency and aggression with time.
Franchises can assume a hybrid strategy of conservative-continuity approach that will place the foreign spending to a range of 30–35% in terms of specialized role-gaps. The research results provide clear strategic clusters, which include assertive, conservative and continuity-focused, that predetermine long-term efficiency of investment. Some suggested improvements are ticketed prices based on roles and hybrid auction systems to tame the so-called winner curse.
This paper develops a performance-adjusted ROI framework for IPL player investments over a full decade, combining auction prices, detailed on-field metrics and franchise financial outcomes into a unified dataset of 2,547 player-seasons. It is the first study to simultaneously apply hedonic regression, a calibrated performance index and propensity score matching to isolate nationality-based pricing premiums in the IPL labor market. The findings reveal persistent, quantifiable overvaluation of foreign players and underpricing of domestic talent, challenging prevailing assumptions about marquee signings and offering an evidence-based template for more efficient squad-building and regulatory design in T20 leagues.
