Assessing the future of futures studies in management
Article Type: Abstracts From: Strategic Direction, Volume 25, Issue 3
Schwarz J.O.Futures, April 2008, Vol. 40 No. 3, Start page: 237, No. of pages: 10
Purpose – to assess the evolution of futures studies in German corporations, the demand for futurists, and the determination of future fields of research. Design/methodology/approach – reviews the methods of futures studies used in German corporations: quantitative forecasting, simulation and gaming, Delphi technique, scenario technique, issue management and strategic early warning, and creativity. Discusses the interrelationship between decision-making, planning and the future, stressing the importance of futures studies in management. Initiates a two-round Delphi study in order to explore the future perspectives of futures studies in German corporations, which assessed the status quo of futures studies in German corporations, methods of futures studies, what futures studies needs to accomplish, the image of futures studies, standards, and further development of the field. Findings –argues that futures studies have a foundation in management in German corporations and in their management, and underlines the importance of further improvement of environmental scanning, trend research, trend monitoring,strategic early warning and the scenario technique. Demonstrates a good intention of the acceptance of futures studies in German corporations. Research limitations/implications – raises a future research question: how to implement futures studies, how to apply them, and how to understand the organizational and cognitive challenges. Originality/value – demonstrates the application of a Delphi study approach in an investigation of the usage of futures studies in German corporations.ISSN: 0016-3287Reference:37BA117
Keywords: Delphi method, Forecasting, Germany, Management philosophy, Research methods
