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Purpose

This paper aims to show that innovation does not exclude the possibility of risk minimisation.

Design/methodology/approach

The axiomatic model presented is a modification of a two-period financial economy with corporations in which real market activities are coordinated by the financial market and risk is seen through the prism of utility theory. Assuming that in an initial period, it is known what new commodities or what new assets will appear on the market in a second period and what their prices in every state will be, the complete financial market is considered.

Findings

It is shown that in the considered economy, under the assumption that every consumer is risk-averse as well as total endowments are not the sources of risk, there is a Pareto optimal allocation in which the plan of every consumer is risk-free. The proposed measure of risk is coherent, in some cases, with one of those used in practice.

Originality/value

The results provide new insights into the possibility of risk aggregation leading to its minimisation, on the basis of analysis of a newly specified two-period economy with a financial market of bonds and equity contracts.

The analysis of entrepreneurial innovation and evolutionary changes in the production sphere is one of the central subjects of evolutionary economics, especially in the line of thought of Schumpeter’s theory of economic development (Schumpeter, 1934). Innovation is recognised as a major force to achieve organisational success in an intensively competitive environment. However, in a large part of mainstream formalisations of the neo-Schumpeterian theory of economic development (Nelson and Winter, 1982; Nelson and Winter, 2002), the relationship between the real and financial sectors of the economy has not been examined in a satisfactory way because of the lack of specification of the conditions under which there is possibility of risk minimisation within innovative economic evolution.

The multi-period models’ risk is seen through the prism of the utility theory. The basic tool for analysing the actions of individuals under risk conditions is the function of von Neumann-Morgenstern’s utility and its modifications (Neumann and von Morgenstern, 1944; Savage, 1972; Wakker and Deneffe, 1996). Their respective characteristics determine the individual attitudes toward risk. Due to the assumptions usually considered in the multi-periods models, von Neumann–Morgenstern utility function can be naturally applied within the examination of properties of the behaviour of the risk-averse market participants in those type of models (Werner, 1998, 2005).

At the same time, one of the traditional criteria for assessing the effects of collective economic undertakings is the principle of the social optimum of Pareto. These two sequences of terms, which allow us to precisely define one’s attitude toward risk and, on the other hand, Pareto-optimal economic properties, are not disjoint. Their relationship in the equilibrium theory of Arrow and Debreu is described by Arrow (1964) and Werner (1998).

Multi-period models are natural extensions of the Arrow–Debreu model, (1954) which is regarded as a basis for the analysis of the competitive markets (Mas-Colell et al., 1995). In these kinds of models the role of financial markets within the processes on the market of real commodities can also be studied (Werner, 1998). In this context, the models in which agents’ activities under uncertainty (Arrow, 1964; Radner, 1972) or under risk (Arrow, 1965; Werner, 1998) are examined, have been developing for many years (Kaplan and Garrick, 1981; Duffie, 1988; Chew and Mao, 1995; Bell, 1995; Magill and Quinzii, 2002; Netzer, 2009; Robatto and Szentes, 2017; Miyagishima, 2022).

The multi-period equilibrium economies considered by Magill and Quinzii (2002) are examples of models in which the activities of market participants in real markets are coordinated by the financial market while the division of total resources are created for the financial markets. The model presented in the paper is a modification of a two-period financial economy with corporations (Magill and Quinzii, 2002, pp. 329–361). The production sector of the model presented is determined by the existence of a finite number of firms, while the ownership structure of firms is defined as a private ownership, where consumers are the owners.

The different models of risk (Bedford and Cooke, 2001; Cox, 2009; Werner, 2009; Heller and Nehama, 2021) as well as the concepts of aggregation of risk or diversification of risk were born with regard to various applications of analysis of risk (Bjørnsen and Aven, 2019; Hassel et al., 2022). However, the problem of risk classification also has its roots in the sources of risk. Some multi-period models in which financial markets are taken into account enable to analyse the implications of agents’ risk-aversion (Werner, 1998, 2009) and analysis of market participants’ attitudes towards risk leads to its aggregation with respect to some characteristics of the model and, consequently, to its minimising in an optimal allocation (see also Ćwięczek, 2013).

The problem of risk minimisation is strictly related to the necessity to define of the measure of risk (Artzner et al., 1999; Denuit et al., 2005; Jia and Dyer, 1996; MacKenzie, 2014) which usually depends on the model considered and on the initial conditions. Modern methods of risk measurement are based on complex methods that combine statistical-econometric tools and network theory (Denkowska and Wanat, 2021).

The welfare effects of financial innovations in incomplete markets were analysed by Cass and Cittana (1998). Magill and Quinzii (2002) studied the consequences of trading in multi-periods economies with incomplete markets for equilibria of an economy. Carvajal et al. (2012) examined, among others, the economies with innovations, in which in all equilibria, financial markets were incomplete.

In the paper, previous analyses of market participants’ attitudes toward risk and the problem of minimising risk are extended to the risk of introducing innovation. We analyse real and financial innovations in the newly specified two-period competitive economy with the complete financial market of bonds and equity contracts (Section 3). In the model under study, we show that there is a Pareto optimal allocation in which every consumer is risk-free (Section 4). The above result is obtained under the assumptions that total endowments are not the sources of risk, every consumer is risk-averse, the production and consumption sets are convex and equal in all the future states of nature and it is known what new commodities or what new assets will appear on the market in a second period and what their prices in every state will.

The paper consists of six parts. In Section 2, a model of the multi-period economy with the financial market of bonds and equity contracts is presented. Section 3 is devoted to the modelling of innovations in the model considered. Section 4 contains the analysis of aggregate risk in the economy presented. Section 5 of the paper is devoted to discussion, while Section 6 presents conclusions.

We consider a modification of the model presented by Magill and Quinzii (2002, pp. 378–426) in which three kinds of market are considered: the commodity market, the bonds market and the stock market. The model presented is a two-period economy in which time and uncertainty are given by an event tree, consisting of the initial period t0 and the finite number of states of nature s=1,,S (S{1, 2,}) in a period t1, where t0<t1. It is assumed that in period t0 there is only one state of nature denoted as s=0. Hence the modelled economic activity extends over two consecutive periods, t0 and t1 due to which S+1 states of nature are considered. Similarly as in Magill and Quinzii (2002) we assume that, for s=1,,S, probability Ps>0 of the occurrence of the state s is exogenously given and s=1SPs=1.

We start the presentation of the economic system which will be later of use with the definitions of the mentioned three kinds of markets considered in the model.

We put the following assumptions: in every state s0,1,,S, there are {1,2,} available goods on the commodity market, space R is the commodity space in the sense of the definition formulated by Arrow and Debreu (1954) as well as price vector ps=ps,1, , ps,R is exogenously given (number ps,l is the price of the commodity l{1,,}). Thus, space R(S+1) is the commodity space, whereas vector:

(1)

is the price system in the model presented further. Under the above assumptions pair R=RS+1, p is called the commodity market.

Let J{1,2,} be the number of bonds, q¯=q-1,,q-J0,J be the vector of bond prices at date t0 (number q¯j, for j{1,,J}, means the price of the bond j), V=vsjS×J be the matrix of payment of bonds at date t1. Bond market is defined as a triple F- = RJ,q¯, V.

For every state s1,,S, row Vs of matrix V consists of the payment of all bonds in state s at date t1, while column Vj, for every j, describes the payoff of bond j in every state at date t1. Let vector zi=z1i,,zJi RJ be the portfolio of agent i. That means that coordinate zjiR, for every j, denotes the number of bonds j in portfolio zi. If at date t0 agent i buys portfolio zi, then zji>0; if agent i sells bond j, then zji<0. Thus portfolio zi at date t0 is an input-output vector, whereas its values under vector q- at this date is equal to q-zi:=j=1Jq¯jzji. More properties of the matrix V, the reader can find in Lipieta and Ćwięczek (2022).

It is assumed that, there are K{1,2,} equity contracts at date t0 which can be bought or sold in this period. Every contract k1,, K generates in state s{1,,S} at date t1 income dsk . Stock market is defined as a triple F̿= K, q̿, Dt1, where K is the number of equity contracts at date t0, q̿= q̿1,, q̿K0,K is the vector of prices of equity contracts at date t0 and W=wskS×K is the matrix of payments of equity contracts at date t1.

Financial market is structure F=(RJ+K,q,V,W), where J means the number of bonds, K is the number of equity contracts in state s=0, q=q¯,q̿J+K is the vector of prices of securities in state s=0, where q-0,J is the vector of prices of J bonds and q̿0,K is vector of prices of K equity contracts in state s=0, V=vsjS×J is the matrix of payments of bonds in period t1 and W=wskS×K is the matrix of payments of contracts in period t1.

Let hi=h1i,,hJ+Ki RJ+K be a portfolio of securities of agent i. It is assumed that portfolio hi is of form hi=zi,δi, where zi is the portfolio of bonds and δi is the portfolio of equity contracts of agent i. We say that financial market F is complete, if and only, if S=J+K and detVWS×(J+K)0. Consider matrix Φ=q¯-q̿VW. Under the above notation, the following subspaces of RS+1 can be considered: Φ:=τRS+1:τ=Φ·hT: hRJ+K, ΦμRS+1:μ·Φ=0. Now the purchase of portfolio hi=zi,δi at date t0 generates income stream τ=τ0,τt1 RS+1, where τ0=-qhi, τt1=τ1,,τS and τs=φshi, φs is the s-th row of matrix VW consisting of the payments of J bonds and K equity contracts in state s{1,,S} at date t1. More precisely, τs=φshi is the income received from the sale of the portfolio hi in the state s at date t1.

Space Φ is called the space of state prices or the space of the present-value vectors. Thus, every vector:

(2)

is a present-value vector and every coordinate μs, for s=1,,S, is interpreted as the present-value of one unit of income in state s at date t1. If market F is complete, then dimΦ=1 and consequently vector μ of the form (2) is uniformly determined.

Let us notice that, by definition (Magill and Quinzii, 2002, p.70), under given (q,V,W) there are no arbitrage opportunities on the financial market F, if there does not exist a portfolio of bonds zRJ and a portfolio of equity contracts δRK such that Φ·(z,δ)>0. So, the absence of arbitrage in the approach presented can be written as follows:

(3)

The property (3) also means that there is a vector of positive state prices νR++S+1 such that ν·Φ=0 (compare to Magill and Quinzii, 2002, pp. 71–72).

The activities of economic agents on commodity markets are coordinated by the financial market which enables borrowers to take out loans by market participants, thus financing consumers’ and producers’ activities on commodity markets.

In the paper, we consider three kinds of firms: individually owned firms, partnerships and corporations, distinguishable depending on the structure of ownership. Finite set B=b:b=1,,B, where B1, 2,, denotes set of firms. Set YsbR consists of production plans of firm b in state s0,,S (ysb=(ys,1b,ys,2b,, ys,b)Ysb), feasible to realisation with respect to technologies; it is assumed that Ysb, for every b and s0,,S (Magill and Quinzii, 2002, p. 333). Set Yb =Y0b,,YSbRS+1 is the production set of firm b (yb=y0b,,ySbYb is a production plan of firm b), Y=(Y1,,YB). Number dsb=psysb is the income firm b in every state s0,,S, vector db=(d0b,dt1b)RS+1, where dt1b=(d1b,,dSb)RS, is the income stream of firm b. The matrix of income is of the form:

(4)

and vector ds=ds1,,dsBRB denotes the income of all firms in state s0,,S.

Assume that financial market F is complete. Each firm b aims at realizing a production plan ybYb which maximises, at prices p, the profit function of firm b:

which to every production plan ybYb assigns the present-value of the income stream induced by vector yb, where dsb=psysb, s0,,S.

Production system is a relational system P=B,R,Y. Let us recall that the expected value of vector μ1d1b, , μSdSb under probabilities P1, ,PS  is equal to s=1SPsμsdsb, i.e. Eμ1d1b, , μSdSb=s=1SPsμsdsb. Number μsdsb=μsl=1ps,lys,lb is the present-value of the income stream in state s=1,,S, induced by the realisation of production plan yb.

Finite set A=a:a=1,,A,A1, 2,, is a set of consumers. Vector za=z1a,,zJaRJ denotes a portfolio of bonds of consumer a, vector δa=δ1a,,δKaRK is a portfolio of equity contracts of consumer a. Set XsaR consists of consumption plans of consumer a in state s0,,S xsa=xs,1a,xs,2a,, xs,aXsa; it is assumed that Xsa, for every a and s0,,S (Magill and Quinzii, 2002, p. 38). Set Xa=X0a,,XSaRS+1 is the consumption set of consumer a (xa=x0a,,xSaXa is a plan of action of consumer a; it is also called consumer’s a consumption plan); Xa=(X0a,,XSa)R(S+1) is the consumption set of consumer a, X=(X1,,XA). Function usa:XsaR is a utility function in the state s0,,S, u=u1,,uA. Vector ωsa=(ωs,1a,ωs,2a,, ωs,a)R means an initial endowment of consumer a1,,A in state s0,,S, vector ωa=ω0a,,ωSaR(S+1) is the initial endowment of consumer a, ω=ω1,,ωARS+1 is the vector of total endowments. Consumption system is a relational system C=A,R,F,X,u,ω.

In consumption system C, the budget set of every consumer aA is defined as: βa:=xa,za,δaXa×J×K: p0x0a-ω0a,,psxSa-ωSaTΦ·za, δaT ,

where Φ=-q--q̿VW. The budget set is assumed to be not empty, whereas S+1 inequalities determine compliance of expenditures and incomes of consumer a on the commodity market and on the bond market. If xa,za,δaβ(a), then it is said that portfolio ha=za,δa of consumer a, finances the consumption plan xa. Function Ua:XaR, of the form:

(5)

where xa=x0a,,xSaXa, is called the expected utility of consumer a, where Eu1ax1a, ,usa(xsa)=s=1SPsusa(xsa). Hence the form of the expected utility is additively separable over time is (cf. LeRoy and Werner, 2001), as by (5):

The aim of consumers is to maximise the expected utility functions of the budget set.

The economy presented in the paper is a combination of production and consumption systems in which agents trade a number of securities, i.e. bonds and equity contracts on the financial market. It is assumed that the agents at date t0 correctly determine their future possibilities (i.e. their production set or their consumption sets, utilities and endowments, respectively), their future actions on the market of securities as well as the future prices of goods in every state at date t1. However, at date t1 there is only one state of nature from set 1,,S and the information about which state occurs is available to all market participants just at date t1.

We consider an economy which is a combination of consumption system C and the production system P in which some firms reached the corporate stage. Thus, in that economic system, it includes consumers and firms active on the commodity markets of commodities, J bonds, K equity contracts. It is assumed that among the firms at date t0, there is at least one corporation as well as every corporation issues exactly one equity contract. Under the latter assumption, K is also the number of corporations on the market, 1KB. Let B=b: b=1,,B be the set of all firms, b:b=1,,K be the set of corporations, where K1,, B. If B-K>0, then set b:b=K+1,,B means the set of the firms which do not have the corporate stage at date t0 and they do not issue equity contracts in state s=0. We assume that each firm b1,,B is owned by a group of shareholders from set A and number θba is an initial share of shareholder a1,,A in firm b1,,B as well as:

(6)

moreover, if, for some b1,,B and a1,,A, θba=1, the firm b is individually owned by shareholder a; if, for some b1,,B and a1,,A, θba<1, the firm b is a partnership or a corporation. For every a1,,A, vector θa=θ1a,,θBa[0, 1]B is an exogenously given portfolio of initial shares of agent a in the set of firms 1,,B in state s=0. For every a1,,A, vector δa=δ1a,,δBaRB is a portfolio of the shares of agent a in the set of firms 1,,K in state s=1,,S, where additionally:

(7)

Now, it is needed to modify, in comparison to Section 2.4, the definition of the financial market to adjust it to the considered situation. We admit that q=q-,q̿RJ+B is the vector of prices of securities in state s=0; especially, q-0,J is the vector of prices of J bonds and q̿RB, where q̿1,,q̿K>0 and q̿K+1==q̿B=0 if K<B, is vector of prices of K equity contracts in state s=0:

(8)

which means that payment wsb of equity contract k1,,K, in every state s1,,S at date t1, is equal to income dsk of corporation k in state s (see equation (4)).

The rest of the components of the financial market is the same as in Section 2.4. The financial market satisfying the above assumptions will be denoted as F=(RJ+B,q,V,Dt1). Financial market F is complete, if and only, if S=J+K and detVWS×(J+K)0.

Let market F be complete. Two periods competitive economy with financial market F is a relational system EF=P,C, θ.

Economy EF operates as follows. There are A consumers and B firms on the market of commodities. Among the firms, there is at least one corporation. All firms are owned by the shareholders from set 1,,A and the shares are described by exogenously given vector θa=θ1a,,θBaR+B satisfying assumption (6). Every investment project yb=y0b,,ySbYb, b=1,,B, is financed by the shareholders. Under exogenously given price vector p of the form (1), the producer’s b choices in every state induce income stream db=d0b,dt1bRS+1 where dt1b=d1b,,dSb and dsb=psysb for s=0,,S.

Thus, the matrix of incomes is of form (4), where number dsb is the income of producer b, b=1,,B, in state s, s=1,,S. Every column b of matrix Dt1 consists of the incomes of firm b in every state in period t1, whereas every row s, consists of the incomes of all firms in the state s. The shareholders of corporations at period t0, after the choice of the production plans by firms to be realized, can sell their portfolios of shares. Thus, if the shareholders, who at date t0 influenced on the choice of the production plans, sell their initial portfolios of shares between dates t0 and t1, then they will do not have receive the income in period t1. Consumer a can buy a portfolio za of bonds at date t0, za=z1a,,zJaRJ. Within the first stage of period t0 agent a can sell his shares in corporations described by vector θ-aB, under given exogenously prices q̿, where:

(9)

and θa=θ1a,,θBaRB is the portfolio of initial shares of agent a in the set of firms B in state s=0. Within the second stage of period t0, consumer a can buy, also under prices q̿, new portfolio δa=δ1a,,δBaRB, for which assumption (7) is valid. Thus, the shareholders on the stock market at date t0 sell and buy the portfolios of equity contracts only from set {1,,K}, represented in the model by their shares in those corporations. It is assumed that for b{1,,K} number δba>0 δba<0, if agent a buys (sells) equity contracts of corporation b. As an initial shareholder of firm b, agent a shares d0bθba as his part of the initial costs of the firm b. The sale of initial share θ-ba induces income q̿bθ-ba, while the purchase of new share induces cost q̿bδba. Share δba makes agent a get income stream in period t1 equal to δbadt1b, where dt1b=d1b,,dSb and dsb=psysb for s=1,,S. Hence, the transactions of agent a on the financial market F generate in period t0, for d0=d01,,d0B, income:

At date t1, the income stream of consumer a is equal to:

Combining the above, the inequalities defining the budget set of consumers a are of the form:

(10)
(11)

Inequalities (10) and (11) lead to the definition of a budget set of consumer a:

(12)

where: ϖ0a=ω0a+y0θa, for y0=y01,,y0B , ϖsa=ωsa+ysθa, for ys=ys1,,ysB and s=1,,S, haRJ+B: ha=(h1a,,hJa,,hJ+Ba) where:

(13)

and Φ=-q--q̿VW, where W satisfies (8).

(compare to Magill and Quinzii, 2002, pp. 379–380). The number of securities (bonds and equity contracts) on financial market F is the same in every state. That is why activities on the stock market of those shareholders who hold corporations in their portfolios influence on their budget set at every state.

Sequence (x,y,h), where x=x1,,xAX1××XA, y=y1,,yBY1××YB, h=h1,,hARJ+BA satisfies (13), is called an allocation in economy EF. Allocation (x,y,h) in economy EF is called feasible, if:

(14)

and:

(15)

A set of all feasible allocations in economy is denoted by M. Equations (14) and (15) are called equilibrium conditions in every state on the real market or the financial market, respectively. On the basis of the above we put the following:

Definition 1. Sequence x*,y*,h*,p*,q* satisfying:

(16)
(17)

is called an equilibrium state in economy EF.

The thesis of the below lemma is the immediate consequences of its assumptions.

Lemma 1. Let sequence x*,y*,h*,p*,q* satisfy conditions (16) and (17). Suppose that, for some s00, 1,S, ζs0 a=1Axs0a*-b=1Bys0b*-a=1Aωs0a0R, ps0ζs0=0 as well as Ys0b0-[0,)Ys0b0, for some b01,B. Then:

(1) y˜s0b0*:=ys0b0*+ζs0 Ys0b0,

(2) y˜s0b0*argmaxπb0(yb0):ys0b0Ys0b0,

(3) a=1Axs0a*-b=1, bb0Bys0b*-y˜s0b0*-a=1Aωs0a=0.

Put, for a=1,A:

(18)

Then ΘaRJ+B. Let HaAha*RJ+B.

Lemma 2. Let sequence x*,y*,h*,p*,q* satisfy conditions (14), (16) and (17). If vector H satisfies the following:

(19)

then there exists a mapping f: RJ+BRJ+B such that sequence x*,y*,h*,p*,q*, where h*=h1*, , hA* and ha*fha* is an equilibrium state in economy EF.

Proof. See Supplementary Material.

Let us notice that if the market clearing condition on the market of bonds is not satisfied, then, for a=1,A, vectors H and Θa are linearly independent. Moreover, under the assumption of Lemma 2, if rank H Θ1  ΘA(J+B)×(A+1)<J+B, then there are infinitely many mappings f satisfying the thesis of the lemma and, consequently, infinitely many equilibrium states in economy EF, determined by sequence x*,y*,h*,p*,q*.

Lemmas 1 and 2 lead to the following:

Proposition 1. Let sequence x*,y*,h*,p*,q* satisfy conditions (16) and (17). If

  • for every s0, 1,S, ζs=a=1Axsa*-b=1Bysb*-a=1Aωsa0, psζs=0;

  • for every s0, 1,S, Ysb0-[0,)Ysb0, for some b01,B; and

  • H=aAha*=0 or H satisfies condition (19),

then there is an equilibrium in economy EF.

Lemma 3. Let sequence (x,y,h) be an allocation in economy EF.

I) Suppose that, for some s00, 1,S;

  • ζs0 a=1Axs0a-b=1Bys0b-a=1Aωs0a0R; and

  • Ys0b0-[0,]Ys0b0, for some b01,B or Xs0a0=[0,], for some a01,A.

Then for allocation (x^,y^,h), where x^sa=xsa and y^sb=ysb for ss0, x^s0a=xs0a for aa0 and y^s0b=ys0b for bb0, as well as either [x^s0a0=xs0a0-ζs0 and y^s0b0=ys0b0, if =Xs0a0=0,] or x^s0a0=xs0a0 and y^s0b0=ys0b0+ζs0,, if Ys0b0-(0,)Ys0b0], the following are true:

1) x^s0a0Xs0a0  and y^s0b0 Ys0b0,

2) ζ^s0 a=1Ax^s0a-b=1By^s0b-a=1Aωsa=0.

II) If H0RJ+B, then for a=1,A, vectors aAha and Θa are linearly independent [for a=1,A, Θa is of the form (18)], then there exists a mapping f: RJ+BRJ+B such that, a=1Aha=0, hafha.

Remark 1 Let sequence (x,y,h) be an allocation in economy EF. If allocation (x,y,h) is not feasible and:

  • ζs a=1Axsa-b=1Bysb-a=1Aωsa0, for s=1,,S;

  • for s=1,,S, Ysb0-[0,]Ys0b0, for some b01,B or Xsa0=[0,], for some a01,A; and

  • for a=1,,A, vectors H=aAha and Θa (of the form (18)) are linearly independent,

then there exist a feasible allocation (xˇ,yˇ,hˇ) in economy which differs from allocation (x,y,h) in the states s0, for which ζs0<0, only by a plan of either one producer or one consumer (see Lemma 3), as well as, if aAha0, then hˇafha and mapping f is defined in the proof of Lemma 2.

In this part we focus on the analysis of innovation in economy F=P,K, θ. From now we assume that producers in economy eF compete and the aim of producers-innovators is introducing innovations to maximise the profit now or in the future, while the aim of producers-non-imitators is to maximise profit. In case of consumers, we assume that they tend to maximise their preferences. The above is coherent with Schumpeter’s theory (Schumpeter, 1934).

Hence in the economy F with innovations, the number:

is the maximal profit of firm b in state s, if the firm is not innovative; if the firm b is innovative in state s, the number dsb may not be equal to maximal profit of this firm.

Consider firm b{1,,B}. Production plan yb=y0b,,ysbYb is called an innovative project of firm b at date t1 with respect to date t0, if:

(20)

or:

(21)

(Lipieta and Ćwięczek, 2022).

Commodity l satisfying (20) is an innovation at date t1 with respect to date t0. Condition (20) means that innovation l appears in every state in period t1. The firm b satisfying (20) or (21) is an innovator or an innovative firm, whereas yb is innovative plan of innovator b. Let us notice that, if condition (21) is satisfied, then in every state at date t1 only technological innovation is introduced by innovator b.

If K<B, then besides the innovations on the real market, a financial innovation can appear at date t0. If at date t0 a new firm from set K+1,,B reaches the corporate stage, then it will issue an equity contract that could be traded in that period and generate an income in period t1. However, period t0 is the initial period for that “new” corporation, hence it is assumed that it is not allowed to be traded within the first stage of period t0. However, it can be bought or sold within the second stage of this period. It is assumed that the firms’ activities necessary for introducing the innovations in period t1 were made before period t0, the firms’ expenditures related to introducing innovations were incurred before period t0 as well as the prices of the new commodities and assets were determined by innovators before period t0. Hence, in period t0 it is known what new commodities or what new assets will appear on the markets in period t1 and what their prices in every state will. Therefore, we assume that, in the economy under study, the financial market is complete.

Let us go to the details. Let K0, where K0<B, be the number of corporations within the first stage of period t0 and K1K0+1,,B be the number of corporations within the second stage of period t0. Set K0+1,,K1 is the set of “new” corporations at date t0. Hence, some new equity contracts appear at date t0 and they are going to be traded within the second stage of period t0. Moreover, the financial market is assumed to be complete so, consequently, S=J+K1.

Thus, the new possibilities of financing of agent’s activities on the real markets in every state are available. Let us notice that new corporations do not have to be innovators on the real market. If at least one innovation on the real or financial markets appears in period t1, then the budget sets of those shareholders which own the innovative firms can be changed.

If K1<B, then, in consequence of the previous assumptions, we admit:

(22)
(23)

as well as:

(24)

The financial market satisfying the above assumptions also will be denoted as F=(RJ+B,q,V,Dt1). Below, as above, it is assumed that financial market F is complete, which now means that detVWS×(J+K1)0, where:

(25)

In state t0, shareholder a can buy portfolio of bonds za due to which he obtains payment q-za. He or she receives income d0θa connected with the income stream d0=d01,,d0B and his initial portfolio of shares θa. Shareholder a can sell portfolio θ-a of equity contracts from set 1,,K0 and can also buy a new portfolio δa of equity contracts from set 1,,K1. The transactions of agent a on the financial market F generate in period t0, for d0=d01,,d0B, the income:

whereas in period t1, the income stream of consumer a is equal to:

Taking the above under consideration, the budget set of consumers a is defined as follows:

(26)

where: ϖ0a=ω0a+y0θa, for y0=y01,,y0B, ϖsa=ωsa+ysθ-a, for ys=ys1,,ysB and s=1,,S, haRJ+B for

(27)

and Ψ=-q--q̿VW, where W satisfies (25).

Remark 2. Let us notice that in the same way as in Proposition 1 and under the same assumptions, we can prove the existence of equilibrium in economy F with innovations.

Let F be the economy with the financial market of bonds and equity contracts defined in Section 3 or the economy with the financial market of bonds and equity contracts with innovations defined in Section 4.

Let us recall that in economy F at date t1 only one state of nature from set 1,,S will appear and all market participants precisely at date t1 will know which state will occur. Such situation is defined as a risk. More precisely, at date t0 the shareholders do not know how high at date t1 the producers’ incomes and the payments of bonds will be. Consequently, the shareholders do not know what level of the utility will they be able to reach at date t1. Thus, total endowments and production plans of innovators at date t1 influence on the level of producers’ incomes in every state. Consequently, if a consumer’s total endowments in two states at date t1 or two production plans in two states at date t1 or prices of two commodities in two states at date t1 differ, then they may be the sources of the risk. Portfolio of bonds za, portfolio of corporations δa are the same for consumer a in every state at date t1, hence they are not directly the causes of risk in the presented model. However, for every a, in every state s=1,,S at date t1, portfolios za and δa determine the parts of the present value of producers’ incomes dsδa and the payments of bonds Vsza which are due to shareholder a. Hence, the amounts of those payments depend on the state at date t1 and are also the source of risk.

Let us recall that sources of risk are fundamental drivers of risks in economic structure or within economic processes. There are many sources of risks and they identify where risks can originate. Risks can exist at different levels within economic processes or economic structures.

In the paper, it is assumed that producers-imitators aim at profit maximisation, the main aim of producers-innovators is introducing innovations to maximise profits now or in the future, consumers maximise expected utilities on budget sets. If there is more than one such plan, then there is more than one possibility of the choice of agent’s plan of action in every state.

In the context of the above, it makes sense to analyse the aggregate risk and the possibilities of its minimisation in some kinds of feasible allocation. In this place, it should be noted that Werner (1998) proved that in the competitive economy with options, the consumers plans of action in Pareto optimal allocations depend only on the risk. It is not difficult to prove that in the economy F considered, the respective version of this property is also satisfied. Firstly, however, we put some additional assumptions and necessary definition.

Definition 2. Feasible allocation x,y,h in economy F is called Pareto optimal allocation, if and only, if there is no feasible allocation x,y, h in economy F such that UaxaUaxa for every consumer a{1,,A} and Uaxa<Uaxa for at least one consumer a.

Let us notice that the definition of Pareto optimality does not depend on a state in period t1, which confirms the fact that the financial market is an integral part of market activity. That suggests that Pareto optimal allocations could, in some cases, minimise the risk on the budget (see also Werner, 1987, 1998). Below we present the relationship between the equilibrium in economy F and Pareto optimal allocation, which is valid in competitive economies.

Remark 3.

Let sequence (x,y,h) be an allocation in economy EF.

I) If,

(A1) for every a1,A, xaargmaxUaxa:xaXa.

(A2) for every s0, 1,S, ζs=a=1Axsa-b=1Bysb-a=1Aωsa0, psζs=0.

(A3) Ysb0-[0,]Ysb0, for some b01,B.

(A4) HaAha=0RJ+Bor, if H0RJ+B, then for a=1,A, vectors H and Θa are linearly independent,

then there is a Pareto optimal allocation in economy EF.

II) If,

(A5) for some a1,A, argmaxUaxa:xaXa= and condition (A2) and (A3) are satisfied, then, for every allocation (x,y,h) for which (A4) is satisfied, there is a feasible allocation x,y, h in economy F such that UaxaUaxa for every consumer a{1,,A} and Uaxa<Uaxa for at least one consumer a.

Proof. See Supplementary material.

In the same way as in (Ćwięczek, 2013), the below remark can be proved.

Remark 4. Assume that in economy F, for every a1,,A and s0,,S, utility function usa:XsaR is locally insatiable. If a sequence x*,y*,h*,p*,q* is an equilibrium state in economy F, then allocation x*,y*,h* is Pareto optimal.

Furthermore, we focus on the economy F in which:

(28)
(29)

s{1,,S} ωs=a=1Aωsa , ωs is a total endowment of the economy in state s.

Moreover, for every vector xa=x0a,x1a,,xSa we define vectors xt1a:=x1a,,xSa and Ext1a:=s=1SPsxsa, as well as allocation  x˜a=x˜0a,x˜1a,,x˜Sa  of the form:

(30)

Vector xa will be denoted as x0a,E(xt1a). Now we put the following definition:

 

Definition 3. Consumer aA is risk averse, if and only, if:

(31)

Consumer aA is strictly risk averse, if and only, if:

(32)

Definition 3 leads us to the below remark:

Remark 5. Assume that in economy F, for every a1,,A and s0,,S, Xsa=[0,], utility function usa:XsaR is locally insatiable as well as every consumer a is strictly risk averse. If x,y,h is Pareto optimal allocation in which condition:

(33)

then:

(34)

Due to Remark 5, we obtain the following property: in Pareto optimal allocation x,y,h, the choice of the plan of action by consumer aA is the same in the set of those states at date t1 for which the sum of total endowment and total production are equaled. Hence, we say that an allocation x,y,h in economy F satisfying (34) depends only on aggregate risk.

On the basis of the definition of the risk in economy F, it is clear that consumption plan xa=x0a,x1a,,xSaXa of consumer a{1,,A} in which:

(35)

i.e. in every state at date t1, consumer a realizes the same plan, is risk free. Hence a potential measure of the risk in economy F of every consumption plan xa satisfying (36) should be equal to zero.

Let x,xRS+1. By distance between x and x we mean the Euclidean distance between x and x, i.e. the number:

Now, we suggest the following definition:

Definition 4. Number

(36)

where vector x0a,E(xt1a) is of form (31), is a measure of the aggregate risk of consumption plan xaXa, a{1,,A},

whereas function:

is a measure of aggregate risk of consumer a. A measure of the aggregate risk of allocation x,y,h is a number:

(37)

whereas function R: Mx,y,hRx,y,h0,  is a measure of the aggregate risk of feasible allocations in economy F.

It is clear that, for every a, the measure of the aggregate risk of consumer a [see (37)] is equal to zero in vector xa, if and only, if vector xa is of form (36). That means that the measure of the aggregate risk of consumer a is equal to zero only for allocations in which consumer a in every state at date t1 realizes the same plan of action. Thus, consumption plan xa is risk free, if and only, if its measure of risk is equal to zero, i.e. Raxa=0.

Similarly, Rx,y,h=0 only for allocations in which every consumption plan xa satisfies (36). Moreover, the measure of the aggregate risk in allocation x,y,h is equal to zero [see (38)], if and only, if the measure of risk of every consumer a in consumption plan xa [see (37)], where x=x1,,xA, is equal to zero.

Now we prove the following:

Proposition 2. Let x,y,h, be a Pareto optimal allocation in economy F. Assume that:

(38)

and every consumer in economy F is risk averse. Then:

(i) there is a Pareto optimal allocation x,y,h in economy in which Raxa=0, for every consumer a, as well as h=h; and

(ii) if, additionally, a consumer a is strict risk averse, then xa=xa.

Proof. See Supplementary material.

Condition (i) by Proposition 2 means that, under the assumption of the Proposition, there is a Pareto optimal allocation in the economy F in which every consumer is risk free. Condition (ii) means that, under the assumptions of Proposition 2, if the consumer a is strictly risk averse, then his consumption plan xa in allocation x,y,h satisfies (36) and consequently is risk free.

If assumption (39) is satisfied in the economy F in which every consumer is risk averse, then total endowments in states at date t1 are not the source of risk. Hence, if in the economy F Assumption (39) is satisfied, then the consumers’ plans forming Pareto optimal allocation, which are obtained in the thesis of Proposition 2 are risk free. Hence, if a Pareto optimal allocation x,y,h in economy F depends only on aggregate risk due to the total endowment (i.e. if the total endowments in states are not the source of risk), then within Pareto optimal allocations there is at least one allocation in which the plan of action of every consumer is risk free (condition (i)). Moreover, if, additionally in the allocation x,y,h at least one consumer is strict risk averse, then every consumer’s plan within that allocation is risk free (condition (ii)).

Remark 6. Let x,y,h be a Pareto optimal allocation in economy F in which (38) is satisfied. If every consumer in economy F is strict risk averse, then every consumption plan in allocation x,y,h is risk free.

To sum up the previous results, the below remark is presented:

Remark 7. If in economy F, the following are satisfied:

(1) X^0aargmaxu0ax0a:p0 ∘ x0ap0* ∘ ω0a-q- ∘ za*+d0 ∘ θa+q¯* ∘ θ-a q̿* ∘ δa*, for every a1,A,

(2) X^saargmaxusaxsa:ps*xsaps*ωsa+Vsza+ds*δa*, for every a1,A and s1,S,

(3) for every s0, 1,S:

(3a) Ysb0-[0,]Ysb0 for some b01,B.

(3b) for every b1,,B, Y^sbargmaxps*ysb:ysbYsb,

(3c) there exists ζsX^s1++X^sA-Y^s1++Y^sB-ωs satisfying ζs0 and ps*ζs=0,

(4) HaAha*=0J+B or H satisfies (19),

(5) conditions (28), (29) and (39) are valid,

(6) every consumer is risk averse,

(7) for every s0,,S and for every a1,,A utitlity function usa:Xsa is locally insatiable, then there is in the economy EF a Pareto optimal allocation in in which every consumption plan is risk free.

Remark 8. The Pareto optimal allocation mentioned in Remark 7, can be determined by the following algorithm:

  • consider sequence x*,y*,h* satisfying Assumptions (16) and (17);

  • modify the sequence y*, if necessary, according to the following recipe (see Lemma 1): if ζs<0, then ysb0*=ysb0*+ζs, ysb*=ysb* for bb0;

    if ζs=0, then ysb*=ysb* for b=1,,B, put xa*=x0a*,Qxt1a* for a=1,,A and yb*=y0b*,Qyt1b*, where mapping Q is defined in the proof of Proposition 2; and

  • modify the sequence h*, if necessary, according to the following recipe (see Lemma 2): if H=0, then h′*=h*, if H0, then ha*=f(ha*), for a=1,,A, where mapping f is defined in the proof of Lemma 2.

Due to Propositions 1 and 2, as well as Remark 4, the sequence x*,y*,h* is a Pareto optimal allocation in which every consumer’s plan of action is risk free. This sequence is determined by a state of equilibrium in economy F.

We begin by showing the similarities and differences between the mathematical apparatus used in the paper and the methodology typically applied in empirical studies of risk. Let S be a number of states of nature in period t1 in economy F. Then sequence S, PS, P, where S=1,,S, PS:=S: SS and function P:S0, 1 is of form: Ps=Ps, for sS, is a probability space (Duffie, 1988). In that space, for every a1,, A and xaXa, functions:

are random variables under probability distribution P1, ,PS  on the set 1,,S. Let χa:=χxa: xaXa for a1,, A and Rχa:χa R, Rχaχxa:=Ra(xa).

It is easy to check that if =1, then number Rχaχxa is the standard deviation of variable χxa (see (37)) while function Rχa is invariant, positive homogenous, monotonic and sub additive measure of risk (Emmer et al., 2015). If >1, then number Raxa is, in fact, the Mahalanobis distance (Mahalanobis, 2018) between random variables χxa and χxa (see (31)). Thus, the definition of the measure of risk of allocation xa (equation (37)) is consistent with those widely applied in the empirical analysis of risk.

As was mentioned, the model considered in Section 3 is the generalisation of the model defined by Magill and Quinzii (2002, pp. 378–426). In the comparison to the original model, in the presented economy the production sector is included and three kinds of firms, i.e. individually owned firms, partnerships and corporations, are analysed in the paper. As a result, the influence of equity contracts and bonds on real-market investments, as well as the consequences of introducing innovations in real or financial markets, could be studied. Thanks to that, aggregate risk could also be examined and measured, which enabled the analysis of the problem of minimising aggregate risk.

In the second part or the paper it was emphasized that the results of introducing innovations are usually examined in the economies with incomplete financial markets. Let us notice that in the framework under consideration, it is assumed that agents in an initial period have full knowledge on the set of commodities and financial assets and their prices that will become available in every possible state of the world in the next period. The prices in the next period are known because, under the assumption of the completeness financial market, a present-value price vector (see equation (2)) is uniformly determined. This informational structure implies that all future contingencies relevant for intertemporal allocation and risk sharing are already known and can be traded upon in the initial period. Therefore, in the paper, a complete financial market is considered. Let us notice that analysing complete markets is valuable because it allows the model to isolate the economic mechanisms of interest without introducing extraneous frictions.

In the framework presented, it is possible to consider incomplete markets; however, doing so would require introducing an additional set of assumptions and examining a larger number of equations describing the behaviour of agents on the markets. Such an extension would increase the complexity of the model and the analysis of future possibilities for risk minimisation.

Let us briefly mention the limitations of the model. The model is not an empirical one, but a theoretical framework in which producers operating under bounded rationality and fully rational consumers have complete access to information about the set of goods and financial instruments, as well as their prices. In addition, transaction costs and credit constraints are not included. These factors limit the applicability of the model to the analysis of real markets, where behaviour is more complex. The model also does not allow for the description of business cycles, which restricts its usefulness for economic policy analysis.

The model presented has some practical implications. The paper demonstrates how real innovations (e.g. new technologies) and financial innovations (e.g. new financial instruments) can be incorporated into agents’ routine activities through specific mechanism rules. This provides tools for analysing how the economy responds to the emergence of new products or technologies. The model and the results presented may be useful in examining how financial innovations influence agent behaviour and how changes in the real sector are transmitted to the financial market. This is important for economic policy and financial supervision.

In the following, we present the contribution of our article to the economic literature in a more detailed way. The combination of mathematical modelling with the analysis of innovation and innovative firms within a relatively simple mathematical framework is what distinguishes our work from those already present in the literature. In the studies cited in the Introduction (for example, Nelson and Winter, 2002), as well as in those published in scientific journals that can be classified within the evolutionary economics tradition, to the best of our knowledge, there are no works that, first, formally capture the relationships between the real and financial sectors while incorporating innovation and second, examine the possibility of minimising aggregate risk. Conversely, Schumpeterian theory of economic development and the modelling of innovation are, to the best of our knowledge, not present in articles devoted to financial market modelling that could be classified within the tradition of mathematical economics (see, for instance, Robatto and Szentes, 2017; Miyagishima, 2022). Similarly, in the two-period economic model defined by Magill and Quinzii, (2002), which served as a starting point for constructing the model presented in the paper, innovation was also not modelled. Additionally, we examine the possibility of minimising aggregate risk in an economic model without relying on the theory of incomplete markets or martingale measures, which is not found in works belonging to the field of financial mathemitics. The paper results, namely, demonstrating that in an economy with commodity and financial markets featuring innovations, there exists a Pareto-optimal allocation in which every consumer is free of risk, under the assumptions considered, can be viewed as a contribution, on the one hand, to the literature on risk minimisation in complete markets (see, for example, Arrow, 1964, 1965; Werner, 2009) and, on the other hand, to the literature on financial market innovation (compare to Carvajal et al., 2012).

In the multi-period economic models (Magill and Quinzii, 2002; Werner, 1987, 1998, 2005, 2009; Ćwięczek, 2013; Lipieta and Ćwięczek, 2022) which come from the tradition of Arrow and Debreu model of general equilibrium, relationships between the real and financial sectors of the economy as well as problem of risk minimisation has its solutions.

The solution of the problem of risk minimisation in Pareto optimal allocations presented in the present paper reveals the importance of the equilibria as well as Pareto optimal allocations for the economic and financial analyses. It is worth noting that in the models under study in which the commodity space is reduced to the space of one dimension, the measure of risk considered in the paper is equal to a measure well known from the statistical approach to the analysis of risk. Thus although proposed approach of risk modelling significantly differs from the traditional models often quoted in literature used for studying its phenomenon (for instance Jia and Dyer, 1996; MacKenzie, 2014; Bjørnsen and Aven, 2019; Rodrigues and Gopalakrishna, 2024; Santiago et al., 2025), the proposed measure of the risk is coherent, in some cases, with one those used in practice (Denuit et al., 2005; Emmer et al., 2015).

In the future, we plan to extend our model to a version with an incomplete financial market and to tackle the problem of modeling risk-sharing in the introduction of innovation (for instance, Abada et al., 2025; Das and Ordal, 2026).

The authors are very grateful to Prof. Niklas Wagner (Editor) and the anonymous referee for their inspiring comments, which significantly improved our paper. The authors also wish to express our gratitude to Prof Anna Pajor for her fruitful suggestions.

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