Getting to grips with uncertainty Available to Purchase

Challenges the belief shown by many McKinsey managers that accurate predictions of the future follow rigorous analysis using the many tools available. Describes four levels of uncertainty that require differing approaches: clear‐enough future; alternate futures; range of futures; and true ambiguity. Emphasizes that real options create learning through the thought processes that the method demands and by virtue of the time that can be gained before commitment has to be made.