Determining the best model for estimation the monthly mean daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface – A case study in Nigde, Turkey

Knowledge of the local solar radiation is important for many applications of solar energy systems. The global solar radiation on horizontal surface at the location of interest is the most critical input parameter employed in the design and prediction of the performance of solar energy systems. In this study, 3 empirical sunshine based models are compared correlating the monthly mean daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface with monthly mean sunshine records for Nigde, Turkey. Models are compared using coefficient of determination (R²), the root mean square error (RMSE), the mean bias error (MBE) and the t-statistic. According to our results, all the models fitted the data adequately and can be used to estimate the specific monthly global solar radiation. The t-statistic was used as the best indicator; this indicator depends on both, and is more effective for determining the model performance. The agreement between the estimated and the measured data were remarkable and the method was recommended for use in Nigde, Turkey.