Negative electricity prices are becoming more prevalent in European wholesale energy markets, driven by increasing renewable energy integration. This phenomenon, while widely studied in the context of energy systems, remains underexplored in relation to energy-intensive industries, particularly food supply chains. The purpose of this paper is to explore the operational and economic implications of negative electricity pricing on cold chain logistics in Europe.
The study employs a regression-based predictive model to examine the mechanisms behind negative electricity pricing events. It assesses their impact on key food supply chain components such as cold storage, food processing, and refrigerated transport operations, all of which are sensitive to electricity price fluctuations.
The paper highlights the vulnerabilities of food supply chains to electricity price volatility and provides actionable insights for businesses to optimize energy consumption. The study also proposes regulatory and procurement strategies to help mitigate risks, improve cost-efficiency, and enhance sustainability in the context of increasingly volatile electricity markets.
The findings offer practical recommendations for food businesses to anticipate and respond to negative electricity pricing events, supporting their efforts to reduce operational costs and improve sustainability.
For cold storage operators, food processors and refrigerated transport firms, the results imply that negative-price episodes can be converted from “market noise” into a cost-reduction opportunity by shifting discretionary loads (e.g., deep-freezing, defrosting and ventilation cycles) into forecasted low/negative-price windows and by moving away from rigid fixed-tariff contracts toward dynamic/hybrid procurement. In your study, firms that combine real-time monitoring, automated scheduling, and flexible contracts are able to reduce energy expenditure by up to ∼15% during low-price periods, improving both margins and carbon performance.
By shaping electricity cost volatility and reliability for cold-chain logistics, negative pricing can affect food safety, spoilage losses and consumer prices, with benefits disproportionately accruing to firms able to invest in flexibility and automation.
This research adds value by bridging the gap between energy systems research and its application to the food supply chain sector, providing a novel approach to managing the impact of electricity price volatility.
