Threat of coastal inundation in the Solent: real-time forecasting

Introduction

Flood forecasting and warning can be the most fundamental component of flood risk

management (risk here is defined as the product of probability and consequence), because

timely coastal flood warnings allow preparation with or without structural defences and

provide the opportunity to move possessions or people out of harms way (Floodsite, 2007).

The United Kingdom has a well established coastal flood forecasting and warning system; the

UK Coastal Monitoring and Forecasting Service (before 2009 known as the Storm Tide

Forecasting Service) (see Horsburgh and Flowerdew, 2010). Real-time models generate

surge, tide and wave forecasts for coastal flood warnings; with a minimum lead time of 2