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Subject

Outlook for military leadership changes and presidential contenders.

Significance

In a July 20 BBC interview, armed forces (Tatmadaw) chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing noted that he would retire next year, but was prepared to serve as president if asked. Constitutionally, the Tatmadaw holds considerable political power in addition to its military responsibilities. Any change in its leadership influences Myanmar's political outlook and the Tatmadaw's position, especially with national elections on November 8.

Impacts

Victory of a military-backed presidential candidate could concern the international community.

Perceiving negotiation possibilities, the opposition may support a Soe Win-led military.

Increasing use will be made of social media in campaigns for political popularity.

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