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Significance
Zapad-2017 has attracted unprecedented attention in the West, as media reports claim it will be the largest-ever Russian exercise and may be a precursor to stationing troops permanently in Belarus or even to invading the Baltic states. However, while alarming in scale and location given the context of Russia-NATO tensions, these war games are part of a scheduled annual military training cycle.
Impacts
NATO will be vigilant as Zapad-2017 unfolds but has deployed only modest extra forces.
Ukrainian warnings that Russia will use Zapad-2017 to prepare an invasion reflect jumpiness rather than a real risk.
Belarus will resume efforts to reach out to European countries and distance itself from Western tensions with Russia.
Keywords:
Russia,
RUCIS,
Belarus,
Baltic states,
CIS,
Poland,
international relations,
politics,
arms,
defence,
foreign policy,
military
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2017
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