In recent weeks, al-Shabaab has conducted assassinations in Mogadishu, attacked African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) convoys and an AMISOM base, ambushed US-trained Somali troops just outside the main US military base and launched cross-border raids into Kenya. None of these attacks are out of the ordinary. Indeed, new data show that, over the past year, al-Shabaab has re-emerged as Africa’s deadliest jihadist group. In part, this reflects the much-reduced threat environment it currently faces.
Increasingly deadly ambushes may force AMISOM to rely more on air and sea routes to deliver supplies.
Al-Shabaab will try to disrupt efforts to build democratic governance, including attempts to organise direct elections by 2020-21.
The still-incapable and under-resourced Somali army may be exposed if AMISOM starts to transfer security responsibilities to it.
