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Subject

Political outlook for Chad.

Significance

In November, the government will likely miss a self-imposed deadline for holding long-delayed legislative elections. The real challenges to President Idriss Deby’s authority, however, may come from the country’s professional classes rather than the ballot box.

Impacts

Despite domestic turmoil, counterterrorism cooperation will likely keep Chad in the good graces of France and the United States.

As budgetary difficulties persist, Chad will become increasingly beholden to international creditors and the IMF.

Over the longer term, some of Deby’s associates and family members may grow restless as they wait for their turn in power.

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