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Significance
At a January 9 summit, the bloc imposed sweeping sanctions on Mali, whose junta has repeatedly sought to sidestep ECOWAS demands for a rapid transition. Guinea’s military rulers also face ECOWAS pressure to set an election timetable.
Impacts
ECOWAS will likely compromise with Mali and Guinea, if there is a way for all sides to save face.
ECOWAS will make generic calls for an election timetable in Burkina Faso.
The emergence of a West African ‘coup bloc’ of Burkina Faso, Guinea and Mali may increase regional tensions.
Regional trends and domestic tensions increase the coup risk in Niger.
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2022
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