Notably, US intelligence accuses Wagner of efforts to destabilise Chad’s junta as well as broader regional ambitions of creating a “unified ‘confederation’ of African states”. Currently Wagner has several thousand combatants deployed to the Central African Republic (CAR), Libya and Mali, and a lighter presence in Sudan.
Western concern over Wagner’s African presence may strengthen authoritarian governments who position themselves against it.
Russian losses in Ukraine may undermine positive perceptions of Russia and Wagner in Africa.
Western efforts to counter Russian disinformation campaigns in Africa will likely prove disappointing.
Backlash against Wagner may empower other private forces and governments to market themselves as alternative security providers.
