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Significance
JNIM’s top leader Iyad ag Ghali and key deputy Amadou Koufa, have been in place since the group’s 2017 creation, giving the group some leadership continuity, despite a period of intensive French targeted killings from 2018-22.
Impacts
Increased civilian targeting by Burkinabe and Malian militaries and Russian auxiliaries will boost JNIM recruitment.
JNIM may resist efforts by northern non-jihadist rebels to move southward.
JNIM may refrain from assaults on major towns for now.
Keywords:
West Africa,
Mali,
AF,
Burkina Faso,
politics,
social,
civil war,
military,
rebellion,
security
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2024
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