Pre-election politics in Uganda.
The long-expected announcement on June 15 by sacked Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi that he will run for president will bring bitter tensions between him and President Yoweri Museveni out into the open. It is highly unlikely to threaten the latter's 30-year rule but may provoke internal disruption within the ruling party as Museveni makes an example of internal dissent.
Loyalty among the military and police forces will remain central to Museveni's power.
Museveni effectively distances himself from graft scandals, while Mbabazi's reputation remains tarnished by several high-profile cases.
Oil firms could see some benefits, if Museveni decides to assure them of his solid hold on power.
The government was already likely to unleash inflation-inducing spending during the election, but Mbabazi's campaign increases this risk.
