Scenarios for the outcome of November 8 elections.
The Union Election Commission (UEC) will soon announce the results of its scrutiny of the applicants to be candidates for national and provincial parliamentary seats in November 8 elections. The formal election campaign begins on September 8. The ouster on August 13 by President Thein Sein's supporters of lower house parliamentary speaker Shwe Mann from his other post of Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) chairman leaves potential election outcomes in flux.
Ties between the military and USDP will grow, but Shwe Mann could split the USDP after the election.
The military will not intervene in the election, provided its political and economic interests are not challenged.
Ethnic violence will mark the election campaign.
Post-election coalition-building will slow legislation.
