Syria's civil war has created the largest humanitarian and development crisis in the Middle East since the Second World War. Domestic, regional and international political factors, and glacial movement towards a negotiated settlement, indicate that the conflict, already more than four years old, is likely to run for at least as many years again. The rise in Syrians travelling to Europe this summer will inform the debate surrounding the international aid response as the UN prepares to launch new aid appeals in December.
Europe will face sustained refugee flows from Syria over the medium term.
New surges in refugee numbers are possible, particularly if the conflict escalates in major urban centres in Syria, or in Lebanon.
Jordan and Lebanon in particular are likely to appeal for more international help to deal with their refugee burdens.
Permanent resettlement of Syrians outside the region will inhibit any eventual post-conflict reconstruction efforts.
An international pledging conference is likely to be held in early 2016.
