Russia's diversified military capacity in Syria.
Russian armed forces played an active role in the Syrian government's recapture of Palmyra in March, despite the partial withdrawal of Russian aircraft from Syria. As well as air strikes, months of Russian military training and arms deliveries enhanced the Syrian army's combat capacity, contributing to a rapid collapse of Islamic State group (ISG) resistance. The operation showed how Russia has widened the instruments available: it can scale conventional air strikes up or down, provide fire support from helicopters or artillery, and use these elements to compensate for deficiencies in the Syrian military, while supplying weaponry, training and coordination to local forces.
Russian military support can ensure the Syrian regime's survival, but that will require a long-term presence.
The recapture of Aleppo would constitute a near fatal blow to the Syrian rebel movement.
The Russian military will learn lessons about weaponry and coordination from the Syrian operation.
Elements of these lessons including control of proxy forces may be applied in future foreign interventions.
The use of mercenaries, trialled in Syria, offers Moscow a useful and deniable instrument abroad.
