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Significance
Crimea's main value to Moscow is as a naval base restoring dominance in the Black Sea and allowing sustained military action in Syria. The economy is heavily reliant on Moscow for subsidies, power supplies and a bridge now under construction. Local leaders have entrenched their position and resist attempts to discipline them.
Impacts
Crimea and its Tatar population will be a shared concern as Turkey aligns with Ukraine against Russia.
European diplomats will raise Crimea with Russia for form's sake with no expectation of policy shifts.
Crimean Tatar identity and rights will be squeezed by the Russian state, Crimean politicians and local thugs.
Keywords:
Russia,
RUCIS,
Ukraine,
economy,
industry,
international relations,
politics,
social,
fiscal,
foreign policy,
government,
growth,
nationality,
pensions,
prices,
wages
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2016
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