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Subject

The outlook for politics and security in Papua New Guinea.

Significance

The police shooting of unarmed university students in the capital, Port Moresby, on June 8 has reverberated around the country, with ethnic tensions emerging in other campuses and growing discontent at Prime Minister Peter O'Neill's actions and those of the police. Behind the violence are growing political frustrations. Sovereign and political risk has increased as O'Neill is not perceived as responding appropriately to accusations of corruption and economic mismanagement.

Impacts

Unrest will cause minor disruptions to businesses, but the police and army will keep discontent under control.

Nationalistic land, agriculture and business policies may reduce investment opportunities, except for well-connected large investors.

The uncertainty has diminished prospects of international financing to ease government cash and foreign exchange shortages.

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