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Subject
Belize-Guatemala territorial dispute.
Significance
In a referendum on April 15, Guatemalan voters overwhelmingly backed a proposal to take the country’s long-standing territorial dispute with neighbouring Belize to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague. However, this will only happen if a referendum in Belize produces the same result.
Impacts
The Guatemalan result is likely to drive relatively high turnout when the Belize referendum takes place.
Politicians in Belize will emphasise the existential threat the loss of significant territory to Guatemala would entail.
Concerns about organised crime will mean the border will become increasingly militarised.
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2018
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