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Subject

Moldova's relationship with separatist Transnistria.

Significance

Moldova and the separatist entity of Transnistria have long had an uneasy coexistence with their respective pro-Western and pro-Moscow orientations and unresolved conflict, but they cooperate in many economic areas. The trend towards collaboration is increasing and international mediating efforts are reviving.

Impacts

Dodon will try to strengthen his position by presenting himself as the only Moldovan official who can talk to Tiraspol and Moscow.

Russia will seek to expand its influence in another traditionally pro-Moscow region, Gagauzia.

Cooperation with Moldova on border regulation will improve Ukraine's standing.

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