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Significance
The Russian Orthodox Church appears to be losing the struggle to control church institutions in Ukraine, as it contests moves by the Constantinople Patriarchate to grant recognition to a separate church in Kyiv. President Petro Poroshenko has led the campaign for separation.
Impacts
Swift moves towards autocephaly will help Poroshenko's re-election bid without guaranteeing him victory.
Russian leaders will mount a strong fight-back against losing soft-power influence in Ukraine.
The Russian church will weigh the risks of a final break with Constantinople and disrupted ties with other Orthodox churches.
The Roman Catholic Church, which is strong in Ukraine, will avoid engaging in the Orthodox dispute and its political aspects.
Keywords:
Ukraine,
RUCIS,
Russia,
international relations,
politics,
social,
election,
foreign policy,
religion,
government,
nationality
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2018
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