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Subject
China-Philippines relations.
Significance
Beijing responded to Philippine construction work on Thitu Island by sending its ‘maritime militia’ and paramilitary law enforcement to the area. The recent events could lead to another standoff in disputed waters, derailing the warmer relationship that has developed since Rodrigo Duterte assumed the presidency in the Philippines.
Impacts
The Philippines will seek Chinese investment but not weaken its security alliance with the United States.
Fishing militias will increase in prominence as implementers of the maritime policies of China and Vietnam.
Unfulfilled economic promises or a change of administration in Manila could cause a more serious deterioration of bilateral tensions.
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2019
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