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Significance
This is the latest offensive after a series of wins by GNA-aligned groups in western Libya, repelling Haftar’s offensive to take control of the capital, Tripoli and the whole country. Turkey’s official intervention in the conflict since December 2019 in support of the GNA has now fundamentally shifted the balance of power.
Impacts
Haftar's losses could endanger his position with his external allies in Abu Dhabi and Cairo.
The threat of mass reprisals by GNA-aligned forces will make Tarhuna groups fight fiercely -- even if the LNA withdraws from the city.
If the GNA eliminates the LNA’s threat in the west, it may look to retake control of the oil crescent.
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2020
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