A new battle-line has now formed in central Libya. The LNA’s offensive ended largely because of Turkey’s intervention in Libya since January. Extensive Turkish support for the Tripoli government, the Government of National Accord (GNA), neutralised the aerial military advantages the LNA had gained thanks to its foreign sponsors, primarily the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This turned the tide in the conflict. The shift will have geopolitical repercussions and alter local players’ calculations and dynamics.
France must decide whether its hostility towards Turkey and Islamist politics is worth the price: allowing Russia a greater role in Libya.
Turkey will attempt to expand the GNA’s territorial control towards Jufra and the oil crescent.
A unified Libyan government would reduce both Russian and Turkish influence.
Oil exports are likely to stay volatile while fields change hands, though the GNA will be keen to restart any wells it controls.
