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Significance
Regional and global powers will determine whether there will be conflict around the city of Sirte, the scale of the fighting, the short-term future of Libya's oil industry, and the contours of the diplomatic process that will resolve these various quandaries.
Impacts
The UN’s marginalisation will continue, and Europe will also fade as a broker.
Libyan oil output will be unpredictable, as it is a way for external powers to influence the conflict.
European energy companies (such as ENI, Repsol and Wintershall) could lose market share to state-aligned companies of intervening players.
Cairo could see itself jostled into an intervention with no clear scope.
Keywords:
Libya,
ME/NAF,
Egypt,
France,
Germany,
Italy,
Russia,
Turkey,
United Arab Emirates,
United States,
Greece,
international relations,
civil war,
foreign policy,
war
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2020
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