Open figure viewer
Significance
Moves are already underway that empower eastern actors to dominate the Libyan state. Appendages to Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) will increasingly govern the administration of eastern Libya (Cyrenaica), and the political head will be a de facto executive comprised of Saleh and key MPs.
Impacts
A new parallel government in the east could lead to an oil embargo from installations under its control.
Saleh could empower tribal forces within local administration and foreign-contracted projects in the east.
As infrastructure degrades, discontent will rise and an election delay could trigger popular protests.
© Oxford Analytica 2021. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2021
You do not currently have access to this content.
