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Significance

The UN has pointed to climate change as the crisis’s main cause. However, the region’s peripheral status, political marginalisation, corrupt governance and poverty play more central roles than climatic conditions.

Impacts

Aid agency appeals for funding will only be partially successful, as donor priorities lie elsewhere.

Insecurity will likely worsen in the Grand Sud, and the deployment of the army there may exacerbate the problem.

COP26 funding requests by the government may go partially unanswered due to corruption concerns.

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