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Significance
Comparisons with two formerly fast-growing Asian neighbours, Japan and South Korea, suggest that China will continue to slow for another decade. Analysis of global growth trends over 50 years points to a strong force of ‘regression to the mean’, meaning that continued high-speed growth is statistically unlikely.
Impacts
Continued Chinese economic slowing will reduce global demand for resources such as iron ore and coal.
Achieving productivity growth will require deepening reforms to increase the role of the market, the private sector and competition.
World Bank economists emphasise that imposing stricter financial discipline is a key step to enhancing market-based productivity gains.
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2021
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