This year's US election is heightening tensions between China and the West over trade and jobs. Evidence of Chinese dumping is mixed: while prices for many high-growth exports have fallen since 2022, only a subset show low capacity utilisation and higher-than-normal inventories.
Further fracturing of trade and technology links after the US election would intensify the operational challenges firms face.
China’s fertiliser, wood and food exports show overcapacity signs and Western governments may take further action.
The property crisis in China will increase overcapacity in steel, cement and construction machinery, adding to trade tensions.
Beijing is committed to state-led industrial expansion and self-reliance but at the same time may curb investment into green sectors.
Corporates will increasingly monitor export volumes and prices, and capacity utilisation, profits and stocks, for signs of overcapacity.
