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Significance
The confrontation is the first such incident since the EU civilian mission in Armenia (EUMA) was launched on February 20 to observe the border from the Armenian side. It was the most serious incident since September 2022, when Azerbaijan shelled Goris and its environs deep in Armenia.
Impacts
Georgia will continue its efforts to provide a platform for Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks.
Internal political pressure on Pashinyan will grow.
The United States will maintain a balanced position on Armenia while not undercutting its security ties with Azerbaijan.
Armenia’s ties with Israel will remain cold because of the latter’s increasingly close ties with Azerbaijan.
Russia and Iran will increase their efforts to complete the North-South trade corridor.
Keywords:
Armenia,
Azerbaijan,
RUCIS,
Caucasus,
China,
EU,
Iran,
Russia,
Turkey,
Ukraine,
ARMENIA/AZERBAIJAN,
economy,
international relations,
politics,
border conflict,
foreign policy,
international law,
military,
security,
talks,
foreign trade,
invasion,
peacekeeping,
sanctions,
transport,
war
© Oxford Analytica 2023. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2023
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